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Saturday, 16 January 2010

3:40

Well European Dream ran like a pig or should i say a horse being saved for another day. Baylini ran a cracker and saved what would have been a disaster although still losing yet very small.

The double came in and Tottenham let me down for a 7 timer in the football ( there is always one ).

Will have a look at tomorrow later and post up any findings.

Bad Selection

No match on Alqaahir will take that one on the chin and relax until the 3:40 the racing is rather dire today

Good luck All for the rest of the day. Will update later.

Nice Double

Nice short priced double up with Mad Max and Tazbar shame Naas was off. Mad Max looking very classy.
With SP's of 1.92 and 1.76 worked out better than expected.

Quick Update

Matched up on Alqaahir @ 24 will get out at 15

15:40 Lingers  Looking at the overall prices on this have decided to double trade both Baylini and European Dream both taken at 14.5  will trade out at 10 have a feeling the European Dream trade will be done pre race .

Saturdays Views

After the plethora of all weather this week we are limited to one card at Lingfield this could be restrictive in finding the back to lays.

2:10 Lingfield  This looks between Whodunit and Alqaahir for the lead with Alfie Tupper and possibly Jeer settling in behind rest held up . An interest in Alqaahir is shown here who after 2 prominent rides to win was held up for his last two runs , i suppose if that is to be took at face value i will soon know my fate.

3:40 Lingfield A race with some good handicappers in , but whats fit and what isn't with 2 in the field not running for 200 + days and another 3rd not running for 60+ days . If John Terry is on his metal i think he would lead ,although his fitness has to be considered ,or do we go with a bit of course form Baylini having won 3 times at Lingfield and twice over this distance could be the fly in the ointment.Or is European Dream well handicapped. I think i will have to update with this one.

Well back to lay wise that looks about it for the All Weather.

3 Shorties for a Treble

1:20 Huntingdon Tazbar behind Long Run last time no horse of that caliber today.

12:55 Kempton Mad Max  Hendersons horses are fit as seen at Southwell the other day , and this horse is a monster

12:35 Naas  Cottage Star will improve for NHF run and expected to win on hurdle bow.
Overall a good card at Kempton to look forward too but a disappointing Saturdays racing overall . Roll on the flat.

Friday, 15 January 2010

Clean Sweep

Another trade complete pre off , its been a fantastic day for the back to lays . Will post up tomorrows insight later, no matter how you look at racing if you are a backer or a layer back to lays or basically a wider spread trade has got to be a good option. Look at the 4.10 for instance Thoughtsofstardom all traded out still hit around the 7/8 mark in running and came 3 rd from last, tell me thats not value.

Obviously it all comes down to selections and not being too greedy when it comes to setting your lay price.

Well of Echoes

Traded as low as 6.4 IR  so there was room for the artistic impression , think i will stick to the little acorns motto.
 Just the 5:50 Wolver to go and Tri Chara is trading @ 11.5 at the moment eventually got matched up just below 14's not 15 chasing pennies around on gruss . Hopefully i can have a clean sweep today.

16:50 Wolverhampton

Well of Echoes traded out pre race @ 9 .When the price started collapsing was going to get greedy and lower the lay but i am comfortable with my parameters also if i stick to them when a loser does come, it wont push me out of my comfort zone.

16:20 Wolverhampton

Divinsky nearly let the side down there my trade at 12 just sat staring me in the face , i thought i was going to miss out but went as low as 10. As Divinsky has been a stalwart recently will make a note to leave alone for a while now looking jaded.

Chuffed to Bits

Both selections traded below the price pre off so just sat and watched the race unfold not exactly how it went in my head. Cape Royal hit a low of 8.8 and Tos down to 7 / 6.8 i think i saw as the graph is showing 5.7 but think that was an early take on the price as he was RP fav last night.

Lingers 4:10

Thoughtsofstardom already trading @ 9.6 so happy with that , Cape Royal drifted to 15 but am on @ 14 hopefully get out at 10 . Yet the TOS trade helps.

Ocean Transit

Hit 3.6 in running for bits but job done @ 4's. The 4:10 next,a race i am very much looking forward too , just to see if the run in my head matches up to the reality of it all.

Order of play

3:45 Southwell  Ocean Transit .... very surprised Striker Torres is trading as fav in this race , sticking with Ocean on this one currently trading @ 6 and will take this  out at 4

4:10 Lingfield Keep rerunning this race in my head and after looking at prices ( rule bender ... never be price led ) i am going to double trade this with back to lays of Thoughtsofstardom who travelled really strongly last time and Cape Royal  both currently trading @ 13 will try and get a better price but will be out on both @ 10

4:20 Wolverhampton  Divinsky currently trading @ 17 on Betfair  have taken this as cannot see the price getting much larger will get out @ 12

4:50 Wolverhampton Well of Echoes currently trading @ 12.5  have taken some of this as the graph on price fluctuations is quite interesting will get out of this @ 9 as i think the price will shorten pre race.

5:50 Wolverhampton Same with Tri Chara really on at 15 will get out @ 10

Prices taken on all apart from the 4:10 will look for 14 on both and get out at 10.


Good luck All

A quick update

4:10 Lingfield This race looks all pace now with Thoughtsofstardom , Ten Down and Cape Royal in the mix for leading up would think that the race will be set up for a hold up horse. Leaning towards the Figaro now.

Will hopefully be on before racing for another update.

Thursday, 14 January 2010

First Glimpse

A look forward to tomorrow

4:10 Lingfield  Would think the lead will be fought out between Ten Down and Thoughtsofstardom , Ten Down being the back to lay selection at this moment in time as the price could be restrictive on Thoughtsofstardom. A fly in the ointment Figaro Flyer down to class 6 for the first time since 11 th of June 08.

3:45 Southwell  Ocean Transit is of interest to me here fit from hurdling but no slouch over this distance has higher class form and apart from Striker Torres is one of the more prominent runners.

4:20 Wolverhampton Old faithful Divinsky has looked as though he is due one soon always good for a couple of points trade as he is such a grinder. At forecast odds of 14/1 should not be dismissed.

4:50 Wolverhampton A field full of hold up horses with hopefully the exception being Well of Echoes ,Hopefully this will lead even though drawn 12 may be able to extract a couple of points . One things for sure the finish should be an absolute brawl. ( Tomorrow i will try and post up a possible strategy on this contest )

5:50 Wolverhampton Have a sneeking feeling Tri Chara will have a part to play in this race as the conditions suit the horse.His best run for a while was on the 5 th of  September when 2nd over this trip.Probably be a decent price and again can see a couple of point pinch.

Will try and update tomorrow Good luck All off to work now.

Triska Disappointing Again

Glad to have double traded on that as El Potro cut some of the losses for me ( not all though ) you just have to take these on the chin and put it down to your own misinterpretation of the race. On reviewing the race Head to Head ran an awesome race from the front , Triska although getting up with the pace always had it to do from that draw ( 9 ) and was soon struggling , although with a little patience i probably could have got a trade out of it  17  down to  around the 11.5 mark . You live and learn as they say.

Tomorrows intended selections up a little later.

Job done !!!

El Potro now trading @ 16.5 pre off so happy with that  but Triska has drifted like a barge but will sit & wait on that one.

Wolver 7:10

Have decided on a double back to lay in this.

Triska have asked for a back of 12's out at 8's

El Potro have already taken 27 out at 20

Good Luck all

A good day so far

Apologies for not posting up the prices pre racing but i am sure if anybody followed the musing they will have had a good day so far.

Turf Time was on at 6  's out at 4 traded as low as 2.88

Copper King was on at 7.8 out at 5 traded as low as 1.98

Ponting was on at 7 out at 4.5 this one won .

Stolt was on at 5 out at 3 this was as low as it traded

With Triska still to run   i could be in for a good day , as you can see from the above. profit was taken from all the back to lays . It is up to the individual as to what price they set their lay at  as with 3 of the above alot more could have been extracted on the lay side. In summary it is best to guarantee a profit rather than not be matched.

One spotted in running 2 runs ago

El Potro (GB) 19:10 Wolverhampton 5f cl6 wide all the way still within 3l @ finish

This runs tonight and i think it wont be far off .....

Wednesday, 13 January 2010

Musings for the 14 th

1:50 Southwell  Turf Time if settling a little better than last time should be right in the hunt for this poor race.

2:00 Lingfield Copper King  c&d form should bode well in this contest and the drop in grade will help too

3:50 Southwell  Ponting form for last four runs reads 1919 so will tomorrow be another 1 , one things for sure back in class six and with c&d form looks a great back to lay, as he loves to be at the head of things.

4:10 Wolverhampton  Stolt  his last run at wolver in november( 8th but only 2 and various bit off the winner ) was very interesting as he led up that day but went very wide round the bend , will be interesting tomorrow as a decent price should be assured .

7:10 Wolverhampton Triskaidekaphobia was put up as a back to lay a few days ago and ran a shocker , drawn 9 tomorrow which is not ideal but after the debacle the other day . HE OWES ME : )

Job done

Vintage all matched up pre off - will post up tomorrows later

Could be a Vintage finish

Looks like the signs are good for Vintage on at 17 out at 10  in to 13 already on Betfair little more money for it could be all traded pre off .

Easy

Easy trade on Equinity traded as low as 2.04

Bad Start

Tadlil backed in to 5.8 before the off but ran a stinker

Racing Depleted Once again

With Lingers off  this just leaves us with Kempton.

Bets as follows

4:15 Tadlil on at 6.4  out at 4

4:45 Equininity on at 13 out at 8

6:45 Vintage on at 17.5 out at 10

Obviously higher prices will be sought, but for the purpose of the blog the guide lines have been set.

Tuesday, 12 January 2010

An Early Glimpse for the 13 th

1:15 Lingfield  Miss Lesley - will probably set the pace and stay there.

1:50 Lingfield  Titus Gent  - Seem to prefer Lingers will be up with the pace from the start.

4:15 Kempton Tadlil - With Probert up looks a good proposition with arguably the best recent form.

4:45 Kempton Equinity - This could run one of two ways with Mr Golam on from a back to lay point of view i am willing to give this a go . If he was to run to his 30 th Dec form should have this in the bag.

6:45 Kempton Vintage - So well hadicapped now worth following until it wins.


Also had these notifications come through so thought i would post them up.
Your Horse Alerts


Horse Race Additional Information

Anjomarba (IRE) 13:15 Lingfield fast finish over 6f 7f ??

Miss Lesley (GB) 13:15 Lingfield led all the way over 6f back to lay

Borasco (USA) 14:25 Lingfield trub in running 7f cl6

Vintage (IRE) 18:45 Kempton low hcp now back until it wins

Gaily Noble (IRE) 19:15 Kempton spotted at the head of things over a mile class 4 watch for drop in trip and class

Good luck all ..........will try to post tomorrow with final musings
 
 

 
Does this horse go left handed ???

Negative Vibes

Posted up the blog on the betfair forum to try and get a few followers , just so that the scribblings are worthwhile. What a shock to receive nothing but adverse comments - a little tongue in cheekery i feel.


One for the fawwon , i can see the resemblance.

Heads Shot

Triska did run no match for some reason so thats a bloody loss .............

Results

With two non runners this just left Mr Fantozzi who did me proud was on at 6 out at 3 but did trade as low as 2.12 .

Tomorrows up later.

Monday, 11 January 2010

Back to Lays for Tuesday

12:50 Southwell  The Cuckoo   will almost certainly lead up but dont think it will stay there , just pinch a couple.

1:35 Lingfield  Triskaidekaphobia  A great trail blazer and having won last time will probably be fairly low price wise , a waiting brief is advised to get your top price , i will be going for 3 here.

2:50 Southwell  Mr Fantozzi  a bit of a shot in the dark with this one but back over 7f with a chance to get to the head of things. Probably will be the biggest price of the 3 named bets. Will go for 1/2 the price and a full back to lay with this one.

Good luck All
City Gossip went as low as 4.8 IR so a succesful b2l .

Out of the 4 posted 2 successful breaking even on the day. If i had taken a bit of a chance with JORD  i would have been well in profit.
Jord traded as low as 5.5 in running great stuff

umatched

Littlemisssunshine traded @ 5.08 IR  no match here

Jord price already gone pre race 28's so all is well there.

Will go for a make or break lay on City of 6

Bad Start

Favourite just too good for Kheley in the first did trade at 5.2 IR though yet no claims of getting out here, take it on the chin and move on.

Bets as they stand

Kheley on at 6.4 out at 3

    Littlemisssunshine on at 7.4 out at 5

      Jord on at 40 out at 30

        City Gossip on at 13 out at 10

          Prices

          11:44 am Update

          Kheley now trading @ 6 looking exceptional back to lay material, a little footnote here is that the favourite @ 1.96 is way too short.

          Littlemisssunshine @ 7.4 will probably go off around this mark 8 would be exceptional value.

          Jord @ 40's get in should be an easy trade here

          City Gossip @ 13 looking exceptional value too.

          Taken the 40's and 13 on Jord and City Gossip will get out at 30 and 10 on these two.

          An ask of 8 has been left up for LMS and 6.5 for Kheley.

          Out at 5 and 3 if the back are successful.

          Have a good day , updates later.

          Sunday, 10 January 2010

          Wolverhampton & Kempton

          1:30 Wolverhampton Kheley is the back to lay here , can see the selection getting an easy lead here which should earn us a nice trade.Trading very low @ 3.75 on Betfair at time of post - hope to get on at 4 and out at 3 ( as an e.g £20 @ 4 lay £25 @ 3 will leave you green for £5 on all runners except Kheley who will be £10)

          2:45 Kempton A bit of a stalwart for my back to lays recently Littlemisssunshine is bit of a standout back down to class 5 as i suspect she may have been saved to win this. On at 6 out at 4 should be the order of the day.

          3:30 Wolverhampton An interesting horse in this one Jord will more than likely lead these up and with the forecast big price will be worth nicking a bit here. Get on at 20's plus and pinch 5( eg on at 20's out at 15's )

          4:15 Kempton For our last selection i think we are better off letting the market form before taking any prices. City Gossip currently trading @ 6.6 on betfair is the selection,should be up with the pace from the off, i would suggest a back at 10 lay off at 6 for this one.

          Good Luck All and make sure you secure the top prices before mulling over your lay price and don't be greedy.

          Backs to Lays

          Will attempt to post a few back to lays every evening for the following days racing ( mainly flat )

          An Epic blog list

          Thats all the blogs added must be an easier way !!

          In the beginning

          Have no idea why i started this ( snow boredom i suppose ) will attempt to update regularly .

          //http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=NXs5g0o9dVQ