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Friday, 5 March 2010

Review

Only partially matched on Layla apart from that a profitable day

1:20 Lingfield Phai Mai Blue BSP 4.32 low IR 2

3:00 Lingfiel Layla's Lad BSP 14.73 low IR 13.5

3:35 Lingfield Figaro Flyer BSP 14.39 low IR 7

4:45 Lingfield Sapphire Prince BSP 7.33 Won

5:35 Wolverhampton Cape Royal BSP 25.78 low IR 8.4

8:35 Wolverhampton Desert Fairy BSP 12.25 low IR 10.5

And a weekend off as no All Weather , flat not far off now !!

Have an enjoyable weekends sports betting .. Gluck

Sup

Friday, Backs to Lay at Lingfield and Wolverhampton

Four from Lingfield and two from Wolverhampton , 10-20% Backs to lay..

1:20 Lingfield Bilberry went very close last time under the penalty and is now a 1lb better off with Waterloo Dock for the 27th run. Still on the same mark should go close but may be too short. Jonnie Skull is 7lb better off from that run for 3 and a 1/4 l . Kipchak ran well last time and has won off this mark before, but as i mentioned that day he was the only prominent racer in that field whereas today there is plenty of pace. I will take a chance here with Phai Mai Blue who is really the only hold up horse in the race and is back on a winning mark,has won over c&d in a class 4 so the class 5 today could prove within his capabilities.

3:00 Lingfield Layla's Lad ran well off this mark last time at Kempton over todays distance hampered when starting to challenge and losing out by a length in third. Prominent racer and hopefully with the presence of Azlak we should get a decent price.

3:35 Lingfield Brynfa Boy although under a double penalty is still lightly raced and probably improving but i would think the price will be very short. Edith's Boy has a 9lb turnaround with Brynfa for 5 lengths on their 20th of Jan running but i would say still a touch high in the weights.Fromsong has 4lb on that same running for a length and a 1/4 . One thing is guaranteed here again and that's pace with Thoughtofstardom(a tad high in weights still) Edith's Boy and Fromsong in the race.This may just be set up for Figaro Flyer although not running badly has crept down the weight to just below his last winning mark and i feel can take full advantage of this strong pace.

4:45 Lingfield Will be interesting to see how Kersivay runs as the change of tactics last time (lead) obviously did the trick and is still on a viable mark. Stanley Godspeed although under a double penalty will still be competitive if he gets the pace set up by something else. My selection here is chosen in the hope that Kersivay reverts to hold up and Sapphire Prince can slowly wind it up from the front sees out a mile (this is 7f) is on a winnable mark,likes to be prominent and was just seen off last time by a well handicapped Binnion Bay.

5:35 Wolverhampton There is no doubting Cape Royal will lead and a ten percent trade is viable. Desperate Dan is another that likes to be prominent but drawn in 8 may struggle to get across. With Misaro and Monte Major on the pace also may just set it all up for Kingsgaite Castle.

8:35 Wolverhampton With Well of Echoes and Sworn Tigress in the field i may get a decent price about Desert Fairy has taken them along in her past two races and can do so again tonight there is no doubting she is on a winnable mark it's just how much more improvement the aforementioned have left in the tank.

Gluck with your percentage plays..

Thursday, 4 March 2010

Review

Shame about the first and a strange BSP on Espy as the bot got 6.48.

3:10 Southwell Lucky Mellor BSP 3.21 low IR 3.1 unmatched a poor start...

5:10 Southwell Miss Bootylishes BSP 3.98 low IR 1.9  and General Tufto prediction bore out.

5:20 Wolverhampton Micky's Knock Off  BSP 5.8 low IR 1.51

5.50 Wolverhampton  Espy BSP 5.07 low IR 4.7

6:20 Wolverhampton Red Somerset BSP 19.5 low IR 11.5

8:20 Wolverhampton Mountain Pass BSP 19.61 Won  Almatlaie ran well enough to trade also.

On later with a look at Lingfield and Wolverhampton.

Southwell and Wolverhampton Backs to Lay

A few for your perusal .... Backs to Lay for your percentage play


3:10 Southwell  Lucky Mellor Returns to the scene of his last win and since incurring the penalty for that win has shown that another victory is within his grasp. Can run both ways but is usually prominent a price of 6+ should be enough to secure a 10% trade.

5:10 Southwell Miss Bootylishes was a 1/2 length second off this mark over course and distance a few runs back , likes to be prominent and has the c&d form. General Tufto at 7/4 is laughable and must be opposed after another 6lb rise.

5:20 Wolverhampton Micky's Knock Off  down in class , after two return runs , should be at his peak . Raced prominently last time and think he could make a bold bid today.

5:50 Wolverhampton  Espy is still a 1lb better off for the beating he handed out to Bentley and Obe Gold on the 15 th of Feb at a price of 7+ will be my back to lay here.

6:20 Wolverhampton  Red Somerset looks to have been overlooked in the early betting exchanges and there is some value in this back to lay. Only 1/2 second last time in a class 4 the handicapper has dropped him a touch today and that should represent an opportunity . Likes to be prominent and most of his good form has come at this course.

8:20 Wolverhampton Mountain Pass is the play here , has been ridden both ways in the past but mostly hold up, but is on a mark that he can be competitive from and also with Saddlers Bend in the race gives us a larger price. Will be interesting to see how Almatlaie runs back down to this class .


Gluck

Sup

Review

A steady day all matched up except for Whiskey at Kempton if i had been " live " would probably have left it as the price was too short for the size of the field. But as i am a working man, beggars cannot be choosers or something along those lines.

2:30 Wolverhampton Spoof Master BSP 10.59 low IR 3.60

5:00 Wolverhampton Kheley BSP 13.57 low IR 10.5

5:30 Wolverhampton Johnmanderville BSP 27.94 low IR 1.04 now thats a trade

6:00 Wolverhampton Laureldeans Best BSP 4.38 low IR 2

6:45 Wolverhampton Whiskey Junction BSP 5.84 low IR 5.6 dont know how far this drifted pre off ... but i was unmatched .

Be on in the morning with a look at Southwell and Wolverhampton............

Wednesday, 3 March 2010

Wolverhampton and Kempton for Wednesday

Four from Wolverhampton and just the one at Kempton today  .....

Backs to lay for your percentage play .........

2:30 Wolverhampton Spoof Master has been left on the same mark as last time and his running style always puts him in with a chance on the back to lay front.A price of 5/6 would represent a bit of value but i can see him being shorter. Muktasb rears his head again but comes out on worse terms than last time out with Spoof Master.

5:00 Wolverhampton Kheley is now back down to a winning mark again , likes to lead and has the c&d to her name . Probably a 10% back to lay, dependant on price. Showed last time that a return to form was imminent.

5:30 Wolverhampton Smalljohn has won off this mark previously and is going for his hatrick i deserted him last time when he won and will today also. Johnmanderville has won over 7f also sees out 8/9f . Had a pipe opener on the 15th and back down to a tad above his last winning mark, likes to be prominent and the Wilson stable have hit a bit of form recently with 4 places and a winner in the last week or so.

6:00 Wolverhampton Well of Echoes and Saddlers Bend both come with double penalties and amateur jockeys ( well it is an amateur race ) the point being they will need some riding to defy the penalty. Selected  here is Laureldeans Best down to her lowest mark and although 7 th in a class 5 last time was only 3 & 3/4 of a length off the winner . Shortened in trip today with a decent amateur up likes to be prominent, will be my choice as a back to lay.

6:45 Kempton Whiskey Junction should go very close here , dropped in class , a 3/4 length 3rd last time after leading up , off the same mark today and has the c&d form .

Here's hoping to a successful day

Gluck

Sup

Review

Nice to get the three up after yesterdays debacle.

3:40 Lingfield  Lucky Redback  BSP 3.61  Won

4:10 Lingfield Spice Fair BSP 17.66 low IR 5.10

4:40 Lingfield  Imperial Starlight BSP 21.66  low IR 18  available at 24/25 pre off

Be back on later with a look at Wolverhampton and Kempton.

Monday, 1 March 2010

Lingfields Tuesday Plays

Geez that's all you need, log on to find that the RP site goes down at 10 pm and you have a deadline to meet !! Luckily started early tonight as need some shut eye.

Anyway three for today, these could prove awful or absolutely inspired....Backs to lay for your percentage play......

3:40 Lingfield There is no getting away from the fact that Peak District remains on a winnable mark but is by passed today as he has never won over 6f. Secret Witness could lead although usually ridden as a stalker but although close a couple of times has never won off this mark. From a back to lay perspective dependant on price i think in this field of hold ups i will select Lucky Redback on a winnable mark has raced prominently before and if fit stands a chance of an easy lead, if not fit may still go hell for leather and it be treated as a blow out. At 5-6+ will take a chance. Orpsie Boy would come into the reckoning if ridden prominently for a change. As the only time recently that he has, ran a great race, all ifs and buts about Orpsie though.

4:10 Lingfield An amazing debut by this horse over a mile when stumbling 5f out  and still coming home within 3 lengths of the winner. This show of ability was well covered on his second start when stuffed at the back and then when gaining taken wide round the bend. First time out this year was given a blow out over 9f when chasing leader to 2f out and then "blowing up" and fading. Could today be the day , i love a conspiracy theory and will be backing to lay Spice Fair in this one. A double figure price will be required but i am expecting a big run. EW also. A half length infront of Thundering Home on debut - a horse that has won a class5 off 70 and a narrow defeat in a class 4 off 75. There be value at leafy. :)

4:40 Lingfield Imperial Skylight has his in and out days as most of Channons horses do. But he likes to race prominently and is on a mark that gives him a chance the booking of Catlin after the poor run last time looks a positive and a high single figure price or double is expected.

May the prices go low

Gluck

Sup

Review

The first day the blog has run at a loss for a while. Anyway here are the results.

2:10 Wolverhampton Brierty BSP 3.2 low IR 1.50  Matched

3:10 Wolverhampton Boo BSP 9.8 low IR 10.5 reared at the start and was never put in race, one to watch now. Unmatched.

3:40 Wolverhampton Dhhamaan BSP 43.53 low IR 3.2 matched

5:40 Wolverhampton Wavertree Warrior BSP 6.93 low IR 6.4  matched
                                 Marjury Daw BSP 18.5  low IR 21 unmatched     played both of these at 10% each so although matched on one lost with the other and a loss overall.

On the 2-10 shift at the moment so it is hard to get the required prices when placing the bets ,  when you are live so to speak you can get the highest possible but when automated as i am when on this shift the prices taken by the bot are what you get.

Will be on later with a look at Lingfield, a possible of four....................

Sunday, 28 February 2010

A look at Wolverhampton for Monday .

Wolverhampton has recently come to the fore as my favourite card to look through as always seem to have the races i need. 4 races looked at tonight with 5 selections. So here are the Backs to Lay for your percentage play :-

2:10 Wolverhampton  Many pace horses in this race so we have to look at it from a "whats going to go close" perspective. Punching has been running well but most of his best form is at Southwell plus 5f seems on the short side for him.Total Impact is a good traveller in his  races and still looks to hold Desperate Dan on form, the latter only being 2lb better off for 2 lengths on 29th of Jan running. Grudge is interesting being 2 and 3/4 lengths and 2lb better off with Desperate Dan on their 12th of Feb meeting. Grudge also has a 3lb turnaround with Ingleby Star for 1 and a 1/2l  on their 8 th of Feb running . So in black and white that brings Grudge out on top of those 4 but on a mark that he has never won off.Lithaam and Bahamian Kid also come under this category. Something has to give and in my selection of Brierty i am going for a horse that can run both ways ,hold up or prominent,with a good draw and below his last winning mark in the hope that his 3rd over c&d last time represented a return to form.

3:10 Wolverhampton One would think Granny Mcphee will be a fairly hot favourite back at the scene of her fascile win on the 22nd of Feb . My selection Boo likes to lead and came very close off a similar mark in a class 4 over c&d on the 15th of Feb. with the helping hand of David Kenny can see this as back to lay material. Also think Ahlawy has a squeak but will stick with the one here.

4:10 Wolverhampton Dhhamaan likes to lead has ran a decent race over this distance off a higher mark and i will trade for the minimum amount here as think the horse is more suited to 7f and feel Hayley has regressed as a leading light amongst the jockey ranks lately. Just feel as though it may lead until the 1f pole and if a big enough price is available 10% should be viable.

5:40 Wolverhampton Marjury Daw has not been far off in her two runs since her winter break and also can run both ways handicapper dropped her a touch for her last run and she may take full advantage will double trade her with Wavertree Warrior as he is on such a good mark at the moment it is a case of when rather than if. 

May the prices go low

Gluck

Sup

Review

Been very busy this weekend,although having time for the form study which has now become a ritual,the blog has taken a back seat as to postings. Still 3 out of 5 outright winners and 4 out of 5 trades within the 5 selections has proved that the form book with that little artistic impression does not lie.

Todays results cannot be fulfilled properly as for some reason the IR lows have not been published and i wasn't around during racing to take notes.
2:50 Kempton  Val C BSP 7.33 was matched at 10% on this one as wasn't particularly strong and nearly swayed back to Turf Time.

3:55 Kempton Kipchak BSP 6.08  Won  - 20% on this one as the race set up was spot on for this selection.

4:55 Kempton Gallantry BSP 7 Won -  Was quite surprised by the price here and with being hold up only played for 10%

Will be back on later with a look at Wolverhampton tomorrow.

Thanks for the encouraging comments - keep them coming.

A look at Kempton for Sunday

Just the three today ...........

2:50 Kempton Turf Time has a 4lb pull for a length with Rightcar on 3rd of Feb. running . Turf Time likes to be prominent and has been running consistently. I just feel as though there may be something else lurking amongst this lot and in Val C we have a stalker that has shown shades of ability and now on an all time low mark the drop in class may also make a difference.

3:55 Kempton Kipchak is the choice here may get an easy lead in this  field of hold ups and i should get a decent price for a percentage trade.

4:55 Kempton I will select Gallantry here as the value option as the top 3 at the weights are all pretty short , Gallantry although hold up could nick this down the outside here. Mcconnell is on a good mark but all his good form seems to come at Southwell.

Gluck

Sup

Review

Just a quick note with the results and to update ....

3:15 Lingfield Peak District BSP 3.1 low IR 3 with Total Impact a non runner nearly didn't play this but was drawn in - no match here. Thoughtsofstardom ran well and is worth keeping an eye on.

3.50 Lingfield Jaconet BSP 2.12 Won

Off to bed now as have had a long day - will have a look at Kempton again in morning there are a possible 3.