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Saturday, 23 January 2010

Sundays Back to Lays

Just the one meeting at Kempton to browse.

3:00 Goodbye Cash has been a stalwart recently taking it from the front and trying to make all a price check will be required before a decision can be made on this one. Another one i think i may have a dabble on is Toolentidhaar although off course for 137 days did go from the front over this c&d and with Turnell in form at the moment i may be able to get a trade out of this one.

3:35 Carlitos Spirit A class 4 horse on his day and although i think a mile suits him better i should think he will be at the forefront of things again over this 7f. A close eye will be kept on Gracies Gift in the betting but i suspect she needs another 1f and a class drop, but she will be finishing at the end.

4:05 Vintage is 8lb better off for 61/2 lengths with Indian Skipper on his last run , and is now so well handicapped his time must come , usually up with the pace and a strong traveller. Think we will get a workable price here. I should think Wigrams will be finishing like a train down the outside after his comeback run on the 9th.

4:35 Will be ineresting to see how large Titus Gent is in the betting as this horse leads. If he is double figures should be able to get a couple of points out of him.

That will be all for Sunday .......... will get on and update tomorrow late A.M

Gluck

2Up 2Down

1:05 Lingfield Highland Harvest  went as low as 8.2 IR should have been a little greedier.

1:40 Lingfield Miss Lesley  Took 5.7 which was a mistake as 8 could be took at the off. So unmatched there.

2:15 Lingfield R Woody called this one spot on , as low as 1.29 IR

2:45 Lingfield Carcinetto will learn, unmatched here , with an SP of 12 making my 9.8 look daft hit 8 IR so if i had waited until pre off could have got something out of it. Automation is the way forward.

Despite two good calls , two rather poor ones also led to a loss on the day but i am missing out on vital value by taking early prices on some of the back to lays.

Prices for Back to Lays

I think i will be a bit more adventurous with todays selections and go for a little more profit.

13:05 Highland Harvest have taken 28 out at 20

13:40 Miss Lesley have taken 5.7 out at 3

14:15 R Woody have taken 4.4 out at 2.2

14:45 Carcinetto have taken 9.8 out at 5

Gluck with your selections for the day , keep your discipline and keep your cash.

Saturdays Plays

Saturdays the day when everybody that bets, bets - over the years i have had some of my worst days on a Saturday i don't know why but i think it may have something to do with the abundance of races/events you can bet in. Anyway on the action and with only one All Weather meeting a little rest for the form reading eyes.

1:05 Lingfield Highland Harvest before his last run his form in class 5's was exemplary i think with him being back down to 7f today we should see him in a prominent role and a good back to lay. Will have to hope he is fit enough to do himself justice as his 73 days off course could leave him rusty.Price check in the morning.

1:40 Lingfield Miss Lesley may be a touch on the short side to work with but her run before last when she went from the front over 6f was awesome from a back to lay point of view and hopefully with the claimer up more of the same.

2:15 Lingfield I would think R Woody will be short but i should also think he will go very short IR blast out and try and lead all the way . Should be a safe point here.

2:45 Lingfield With Aeroplane being decidedly dodgy and Everymanforhimself stepping upto a mile for the first time i think Carcinetto could stand me in good stead here likes to be prominent , sees the mile out and has won in class 2.If i can get a decent price will give this a go.

No interest in the last two races , Good Luck All , will be on in the morning for updates.

Friday, 22 January 2010

In and Out Day

Wont bore you with tales of aftertiming will just post the price that the horses went in running. Couldn't post pre race as got called into work early.

2:00 Lingfield Shaded Edge hit 15.5 IR with a SP of 17.5

3:45 Lingfield Spinning Ridge hit 4.2 IR with a SP of 17.96

4:35 Wolverhampton El Potro hit 25 IR  with a SP of 28
                                Albera Di Giuda won with a SP of 6.98

5:05 Wolverhampton Duke of Rainford won with a SP of 4.65

7:05 Wolverhampton Jord hit 14 IR with a SP of 19.49

7:35 Wolverhampton Gracies Gift  hit 6 IR with a SP of 7.15

8:05 Wolverhampton Place The Duchess hit 14 IR with a SP of 16.88

Will be on later with tomorrows Back to Lays.

  

2 Meetings Again

2:00 Lingfield  Shaded Edge has ran some cracking races round here and likes to be up with the pace just failing by a nose to hold on last time in class 5 after being runner up in class 4 the time before. Will take a look at the price of this one tomorrow.

3:45 Lingfield Back to the scene of his last win and knocking on the door last time at 9f looks to lead or be prominent over 8f although held up last time over 9f  Spinning Ridge is the selection here. Again a price check is required.

4:35 Wolverhampton I have been waiting for this horse El Potro to happen since watching him get a strange ride 3 runs ago when coming wide all the way and then wider still round the bend . Nowhere to be seen at Southwell the time after then prominent and going wide at the bend again last time. Will back to lay El Potro here as likely be a big price and at the forefront of things again. Another worth a mention is Albero Di Giuda 3rd over c&d last time and another prominent racer, will make a decision in the morning as Cheery Cat will no doubt be favourite.

5:05 Duke of Rainford ran 4 days ago doing myself a favour with a great back to lay will stick with him but the booking of Spencer rings the alarm bells as he loves to sit out the back. But with the weight turn around should be infront of Turf Time this time.

7:05 Another in Jord that i selected last time but with no profit as a mid race stumble put paid to any chances he had. Time before looked one on his uppers and likes to race prominently although may be a bit short pricewise.

7:35 A hold up horse in Gracies Gift this time after 2 runs at Southwell back to Wolver where 3 runs ago she was a fast closing 2nd in this grade , think i could get a decent price here as she looked to have lost her form last time - i hope she hasn't.

8:05 Triskaidekaphobia a great lead up horse on her day but last time i did say i would take a watching brief also been done no favours drawn nine again.Head to Head may struggle to get such a good run too drawn out in 13. Now in Place The Duchess there will be some value looks like a horse that has been set up for a race of this nature and things may have fallen right here. A decent draw with a jockey that gives his all in the correct situation, interesting that she can lead and from the 1 draw expect her to be there from the start. Back to lay material with a great price to work with i hope.

On in the Morning with updates.

Gluck

Thursday, 21 January 2010

Southwell goes off the Playlist

1:20 Southwell Handsinthemist a lesson learnt should never have traded this as the price was too restrictive really early on, obviously drifted pre race so another example of not getting the value.

2:20 Southwell Hilbre Court i will have to apologise for even putting this on the blog just drifted and drifted.

3:50 New Couture You couldn't make it up , what can i say.


So Southwell was a total non event and very disappointing also a knock to the confidence.

4:20 Wolverhampton Djalalabad all traded out pre race so happy with that , went as low as 2.10 in running.

4:50 Wolverhampton Bel Cantor traded out in running went as low as 8's. Noticed that the price didn't go much higher than the one i took in the morning.

So 2/2 at Wolverhampton but Southwell giving me a rather hefty loss on the day.

Back on later with tomorrows views.

Update

1:20 Southwell Have taken the 4.7 on Handsinthemist as there is a steady downward curve on the graph will get out at 3

2:20 Southwell  Hilbre Court will look for 20's plus on this and get out at 15

3:50 Southwell A few peaks and troughs on the New Couture graph i am happy to take the 10 here and get out at 8.

4:20 Wolverhampton Obviously with the later races you have no idea of which way the price will go so early. Djalalabad trades at 10 at the moment on Betfair i am happy to take this and get out at 8.

4:50 Wolverhampton  Will take the 16 on Bel Cantor out at 12.


Gluck Today with your selections.......

Southwell & Wolverhampton for Thursday

1:20 Southwell A nice little comeback run in December may have put Handsinthemist right for this race . Likes to be up with the pace and has solid c&d form. Hopefully get a double figure price to play with.

2:20 Southwell Hilbre Court shows by far his best form here , another that likes to be up with pace. Will look at the prices in the morning.

3:50 Southwell An interesting one here in New Couture dropping back from 10 & 12f to a mile for his handicap debut. Will look at the price of this one in the morning.

4:20 Wolverhampton  An interest is shown in Djalalabad here , a hold up horse who only ran yesterday getting trapped on the inner and when getting out pressed the leader until a 1f out then weakened but was only 4 lengths off at the end. Back down to his fav 7f trip would hope its in with a shout. Will be interesting to see the prices on the one.

4:50 Wolverhampton  Can Kelly get it right on Bel Cantor always runs its best races from the front . Should be good for a two point trade.

After running through the rest of the wolverhampton card there are not alot of standouts so these 5 will do for the day. Will update in the morning hopefully with prices taken. Some thought will have to go into how, when i am away from the computer i can secure the best prices ,an idea has come to me but it would mean laying to an exact margin on every race chosen. This is by no means ideal but may have to do for now.

Gluck

Wednesday, 20 January 2010

5 Out of 7

3:40 Lingfield Ediths Boy ran no sort of race again and left me unmatched

4:10 Lingfield Both Don Pele and Sherjawy ran as expected  Sherjawy reaching 3.70 in running,Don Pele 2.34 but as stated below couldn't believe he was favourite.

4:30 Kempton Suffered again here from taking early prices Cragganmore Creek ran no sort of race anyway but i am certainly missing out on opportunities when not on the computer.

5:00 Kempton Foxtrot Bravo did the business for me here trading as low as 9.6 IR  but again missed out on many points as he traded at a high of 32

6:00 Kempton Brouhaha again matched up as traded @ 11 in running.

7:30 Kempton  A great run from Cavalry Guard went as low as 5.1 in running

8:00 Kempton  Another great back to lay with Metropolitan Chief finishing 9 th but still hitting 5.1 IR but with a BSP ( betfair starting price) of 30's you can only look at it as missed profit.

Overall a good day for the race reading skills with a small profit made , will have to come up with some ideas on eeking out the value in the market when not sat at the computer. Looks like the purchase of a bot is on the horizon.

On later with any selection for tomorrow

Update

3:40 Ling  Gone for Ediths Boy here on at 10.5 out  @ 8

4:10 Ling Don Pele favourite but opted for Sherjawy on at 6.4 out @ 4

4:30 Kemp Cragganmore Creek on at 16.5/ 17 out @ 12

5:00 Kemp Foxtrot Bravo looking for a match @ 19.5 out @ 15

6:00 Kemp Will opt for Brouhaha here again looking for 19.5 out at 15

7:30 Kemp Cavalry Guard looking for 17 out at 12

8:00 Kemp  Metropolitan Chief  looking for 19 out at 15

Quite happy with the prices taken and looking for should give us plenty to play with. See Chasing Cars traded lower but wasn't on, as a restrictive price in the first place.

Will be on later tonight.

Gluck

Wednesdays Back to Lays

Two meetings to peruse , a definite marathon reading of form.

3:40 Lingfield Can see Ten Down leading this field but is 2lb wrong with Fromsong on 19th Dec running so will have to dismiss him here. Ediths Boy likes to lead also, but suffered a strange ride last time if all goes to plan can see Ediths Boy leading with Fromsong and Master Lightfoot tracking in behind. Think i may double trade Ediths Boy and Master Lightfoot
Will have a look in the morning as to what the prices throw up.

4:10 Lingfield Two horses in this race that depending on how they are ridden give an indication to their prospects. Don Pele and Sherjawy when given a chance to lead usually run good races. I think looking at the set up of the race and not knowing what they will do with Don Pele i will opt for the back to lay of Sherjawy.

4:30 Kempton Cragganmore Creek selected here as one of the only lead up horses in a race packed full of hold up horses. After coming back to form last time in this class would like to think he will run a strong race but will be susceptible to them all at the end.

5:00 Kempton Foxtrot Bravo with Probert on is the selection in this race . Another one that they seem to switch tactics with but hopefully he will go from the front today and stay there.

6:00 Kempton Brouhaha and Dens Gift are selected here hopefully Bouhaha to lead with Dens Gift tracking but both have been looking as if their time is nigh. Probably a double trade but will check the prices in the morning.

7:30 Kempton Amy Baker has been knocking on the door with Cavalry Guard the last few runs , apart from when tried over a mile last time back down to 7f and likely to be up with the pace will take this one for a two point trade.

8:00 Kempton  Luke Morris' only ride on this horse showed some improved form when it was 3rd over this course and distance 2 runs ago its a hold up horse but does travel strongly and at the likely long odds Metropolitan Chief could give us a chance for a good trade.

12:55 Punchestown Chasing Cars one from the Sportline race that i have mentioned before was 3rd that day albeit 11l down , fell at the first next time but likes to be up with the pace. Will check price tomorrow here as may represent an opportunity if the right price.

Update pre racing, Gluck


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Tuesday, 19 January 2010

A funny ol Game

Update on todays plays

2:20 Wolverhampton As earlier stated R Woody was left alone but if i was sat infront of the comp pre race at 4.35 would have given it a go reached 1.29 IR . Oh well .

2:50 Wolverhampton Cannot believe that Weet A Surprise came a length second and didn't get matched. Have to take that one on the chin.

3:50 Wolverhampton Goodbye Cash ran its usual race and went to 5.2 IR . So matched up there.

4:50 Wolverhampton Let down by Desert Fairy but i suppose the drift told the story here.I see Kirstys Lad ran its usual race. These are the problems that you come across when not sat on your computer and trying to automate everything you just get caught out by the price fluctuations because you get on too early.

All in all a poor day will put tomorrows up in a bit , a little more study required first.

Update

2:20 Will have to leave R Woody at tthat price if i had got on  last night at 3.65 could have traded out pre race but the price is too restrictive now.

2:50  Weet a Surprise on at 6.6 out at 4

3:50 Priti Fabulous non runner one to watch for on the entries.

4:50 Desert Fairy on at 8.4 out at 6

So just the two today shame about Priti Fabulous but i suspect it is waiting for another day as the favourite is too strong. Goodbye Cash could be worth a speculative back to lay trading @8 at the moment out at 6

Will be on later tonight for more of the same

Gluck

Views on today

Wolverhampton again.

2:20  Can Magenta Strait cope with the extra 6lb and the class rise ?? As she was held up for her last win i am going to desert her for now. The selection here will be R Woody solely on the line of form through Wanchai Whisper he should have the beating of Magenta here, coupled with the fact that he likes to race prominently and was hampered last time plus should be a bigger price to play with. 2 point trade here.

2:50 Struggled to get a handle on this race as it's chock full of hold up horses but this always provides a chance for a horse with a wide draw to get across and i'm hoping Weet A Surprise can do this. 2nd in a class four last time back down to class 5 and the venue of its previous win , can see him getting across to tuck in behind the front running Titus Gent with everything else jockeying for position in behind. He seems to hit a flat spot in his races so hopefully will be a generous price for a two point trade.

3:50 With two horses going for a treble and probably vying for favouritism there could be an opening for a play in this one. After looking at the race i would think Goodbye Cash will try and make the running but a very interesting runner is Priti Fabulous a winner in class 4 in 08 , 4th in a class 3 in spring 09 a poor run over 7f but since then been run over 5 f ( 4 runs ) as his two wins have been at 7 & 8 f this is one i will chance my arm with. Would assume a double figure price will be available.

4:50 Have looked at this race and was leaning towards Kirstys Lad again but would think it will be a tad short also ran a different race from what i expected on Sunday held up instead of going from the front. Red Current likes to lead but seems to be well out of form , so we will go for a prominent racer in Desert Fairy who last time seemed to find trouble but still rallied at the end to only finish 4l 4th. Again a double figure price should be available.

Will try and update in the morning before racing , here's to more of the same. Gluck

Monday, 18 January 2010

In Awe

At work until 10 pm so was unable to update  until now. But an average day shame Shes My Rock let me down but great results with the other two and i hope anybody that gave the selections a go was a little bit greedier than i am and made a killing, because the other two selections you could have doubled up on ( a true back to lay ). With Duke of Rainford hitting 3.65 IR and Ahmedy hitting 3 IR there was plenty of room for profit.
  Will look into tomorrows now and see what gems i can dig out .

Gluck

Prices Taken

2:50 Wolverhampton Duke Of Rainford may have this one totally wrong but will stick with my reading of the race on @ 40/38 will get out around the 30 mark.

3:20 Wolverhampton She's My Rock  on @ 11 will get out at 8's

5:20 Wolverhampton Ahmedy on @ 10 will get out at 7's

Gluck

Mull Over Monday

2:50 Wolverhampton Another low grade 3 yo handicap , where is the improver? , where is the leader?? i say. Will stick my neck out here and select Duke of Rainford for a back to lay . If he ran anywhere near his 08 Aug form where he was 3 rd would probably have this in the bag ,but will he? His all weather form thus far is nothing to write home about but i think we may see him in a different light today. Should lead or be thereabouts and hopefully be a double figure price so i can get a two point trade. Lady Brickhouse 1lb wrong could be the fast finishing danger.

3:20 Wolverhampton Looks a toughie again with 2  hold up performers who ran into trouble last time ( Pie Poudre,Rock A Doodle Doo) and still finished respectably in their races. Selection for a 2 point back to lay here is Shes My Rock  will be up with the pace,probably back to her favourite distance after being favourite and slightly dissappointing last time. Hope for a decent price to play with.

5:20 Wolverhampton Obviously Chalice Welcome will be fairly short here to get her treble up. Dzesmin the betting should tell the tale, and Venetia said her NH horses had only been ticking over through the rough weather so that should rule out Prince Sabaah. One i like here is Ahmedy over came a lay off to win over c&d in october so obviously goes well fresh and at a forecast price of 8/9 should leave us a little to play with. 2 point trade.

Good luck all will be on just before racing with an update.

Sunday, 17 January 2010

O.K so far

With Kirstys going under the 5 and Nickel Silver( Ivory Silk in 2 nd as mentioned in preview) going as low as 2.46 IR everthing working ok,
I think i will leave this Novillero one out as very little price to play with.

Will be on later for a look at tomorrow.

14:30

Very happy with that outcome considering i thought i had stuffed myself up with the Wanchai lay.

The bets

2:30 Wanchai lay back back at 2.5 Magenta 4.4 out at 2.2 .

3:40 Kirstys Lad on at 7 out at 5

4:10 Nickel Silver on at 5.5 out at 4

4:40 Novillero will hold out for 4 on this.

Gluck

Update

2:30 Wanchai shortens , Magenta stays around the same price 4.4 really cannot see Wanchai staying that short but will put a back up at 2.5 in running to recover the lay. Magenta has turned into a non event because of the wrong reading of Wanchais price . Couple of hours to go until race starts so we will see.

3:40 Kirstys Lad currently trading at 7.2 will leave this until nearer racetime.

4:10 Nickel Silver at 5.8  tad short will leave for now

4:40 Novillero Favourite at 3.25 so he obviously went into alot of notebooks. May end up a no play here because of his style of running and the shortness of the price.

2:30 Wolver

I am absolutely astounded by Wanchais price 1.96 on betfair have laid even money with a view of backing back tomorrow, cannot see the price staying that low as they get stuck into others in the morning.

Sunday Preview

Now the 3 year olds are starting to turn out obviously the form becomes mixed with the seasonal all weather campaigners, stalwarts so to speak, form easier to decipher than the new kids on the block ( 3 year olds)

2:30 Wolverhampton So after stating the previous pitfalls,straight into a 3 yo seller. I think the standout here is Magenta Strait won in the same class in December ( finding trouble in running ) and open to no end of improvement.The obvious danger Wanchai Whisper yet Kempton seems to be this horses course of choice.
I would think prices on the two would be restrictive with Wanchai being the favourite after his 3rd in a class 5 last time. I think a two point trade on Magenta may be the call here.

3:40 Wolverhampton  After 2 runs in class six back down to class 7 and the scene of his 3rd three runs ago Kirstys Lad is the selection in this race likes to get to the front early and stays further than the 9f ( 1m 141y ) of this race . Price on this one not so easy to predict will err on the side of caution and go for a two point trade at the moment.

4:10 Wolverhampton Ivory Silk i feel is being set up to win very soon, his run before last had the hallmarks of a waiting to happen stamped all over it, hit trouble still came second , i just dont think it will be today in this class 2. This race looks a right burn up with Glamorous Spirit and Nickel Silver liking to lead with the possibility of Earlsmedic being up there also from a nice 5 draw. I would not think Glamorous would stay at the head of things long enough for a trade so will go with Nickel Silver for a 2 pointer with pennies on Ivory just incase they set it up for him.

4:40 Wolverhampton Novillero went into alot of notebooks last time when finding more trouble in one race than Tyson did in his career out of the ring. A decent early price would be a godsend as he was backed last time and i should think there will be a few trying to recoup. Monitor the market for a 2 point trade. 5 has been taken already on Betfair and down to 4.5. I think i will hold out for 5 and be out at 3.

On a footnote Kimberlite King runs (Fairyhouse 2:00) today in a hot race i have followed this one as he is linked in with the Sportline ( Ante Post bet ) form may be worth a little back to lay for 2 ( 9.8 and 9.4 taken on Betfair ) will lay off tomorrow hopefully.

Good Luck All