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Saturday, 13 February 2010

Kempton for Sunday

3:10 Kempton Monsieur Filloux is 3lb better off for 3/4l with Moojeh on there 21st december running(class 5). The run last time will have to be excused as it was a poor effort (probably bounced). Only worry here is it is a hold up horse , but will take a chance at 10 or better. Decent price should be available with Ocean Legend and Ejeed in the race.

4:50 Kempton Have Sherjawy to lead and Titus Gent to be up there, may double trade these two but more interested in Titus Gent as think a bigger price will be available and think it is due a big run. Will be plenty of pace on and always good to look for a closer if you're looking for the winner. Style Award could be one that tucks in.

5:20 Kempton Muktasb turned out quickly after the other day , when plenty thought he should have won.Probably be too short for a horse that is consistently played with.Don Pele ran a good race in a claimer the other day to hail a return to form was imminent , likes to lead and usually does his winning around this time of year. Price check here.

Be on tomorrow pre racing ........................

Gluck

Sup

Review

Just unmatched on Marjury , slight dent in profit , thems the breaks.

1:55 Lingfield Brenda Duke BSP 8.23 low IR 7.8


2.25 Lingfield Billy Red BSP 6.16 Won

6:20 Wolverhampton Kieltys Folly BSP 5 low IR 1.8

6:50 Wolverhampton Marjury Daw BSP 8.4 low IR 6.8 unmatched here

8:20 Wolverhampton Mozayada BSP 17.21 low IR 15.5 went down to 11 and just under pre off

On in a bit with Kempton for Sunday think there are only 3.

18:20

Kieltys went as low as 1.8 In Running so job done there, 2 to go for a clean sweep............

Gluck for the rest of the evening will post days results later and have a look at Sunday.............

Price Check

18:20 Wolverhampton Kieltys Folly currently trading at 8.4  have taken this as dont think will drift much.

18:50 Wolverhampton Marjury Daw currently 7 trying for 7.4

20:20 Wolverhampton Mozayada 18 at the moment had a bit of that but could end up any price , keep        snatching what i think is value.

Funny Old Game

While it all goes pear shaped at Newbury i continue to eek out the pennies

So far so good -

1:55 Lingfield Brenda Duke BSP 8.23 low IR 7.8 

2.25 Lingfield Billy Red BSP 6.16 Won

Be back with a look at Wolverhampton later

Friday, 12 February 2010

A look at Lingfield And Wolverhampton for Saturday

2 from Lingfield and 3 for the evening at Wolverhampton.

1:55 Lingfield One would think Stefanki will be short fav for this one,but with 77 days off and unproven on the surface, my selection for a back to lay here is Brenda Duke back to a mile with the blinkers applied for the first time likes to be up with the pace and should be a workable price.

2:25 Lingfield Billy Red should be the answer here likes to lead has the c&d form and should be a workable price , Indian Skipper should be interesting moving back up to 6f... Price check in the morning.

6:20 Wolverhampton Kieltys Folly has run some of its best races over this distance seems to go well for an amateur and is in good form.Can run both ways . Price check required although these type of races are usually quite competitive.

6:50 Wolverhampton A good comeback after nearly 2 months off over c&d puts Marjury Daw in the frame for a back to lay here. Fairly lightly raced for a 4 year old one would think there is still improvement to come.

8:20 Wolverhampton If i can secure a decent price for Mozayada she will probably be the back to lay here. Usually at the forefront of things has winning  form over further and the likely favourite hasn't won over 7f since 2008, should think this will be factored in.

Remember these are Back to Lays for two points not selections to win ( Although some do)

Hope you all have a successful day - Gluck

Sup

Review

Unmatched on two at the prices taken - Shifting Star and Smirfys Systems - not a bad day overall,probably shouldn't have double traded Orpsies race.


1:15 Sothwell  Ten Pole Tudor BSP 10.54 low IR 5.30

1:45 Southwell Eight Hours BSP 5.41 Won Proved correct taking the 6 early doors.

2:55 Southwell Jazrawy BSP 10.3 low IR 3

5:15 Wolverhampton Monsieur Reynard BSP 5.83 low IR 1.78

6:45 Wolverhampton Orpsie Boy BSP 5.47 (trading at 10's on price check) low IR5.60,Shifting Star BSP 11.50 low IR 10 unmatched on this one.

7:45 Wolverhampton Imperial Starlight BSP 7.35 low IR 1.2

8:15 Wolverhampton Smirfys Systems BSP 12.31 low IR 13.5

8:45 Wolverhampton Muktasb as previously mentioned did not play on this one but he still made the two points. BSP 5.40 low IR 3

On later with a look at Saturday...........................

Price Check and Musings

1:15 Southwell Will go with Ten Pole Tudor ( currently 14 on Betfair )here as just feel Special Cuvee running style and the price plus the fact that he  usually finds one too good could go against me.

1:45 Southwell Already on Eight Hours at 6  have a feeling this may shorten.

2:55 Southwell Jazrawy  looking for high 9's / 10 on this one.

Bit too Early for the Wolverhampton prices to be taken will leave this to the bot last minute.

5:15 Wolverhampton Monsieur Reynard currently 7.4 on Betfair

6:45 Wolverhampton Shifting Star and Orpsie Boy both around the 10 mark , will double trade these.

7:45 Wolverhampton  Imperial Skylight currently 7.4

8:15 Wolverhampton Albero Di Giuda a touch short to play , Smirfys Systems currently 12

8:45 Wolverhampton Muktasb at 5 is too short for the trade on his style of running so will leave for now and hope he drifts looking for 8/9

Gluck

Sup

Southwell & Wolverhampton 12 th February

A few for this Afternoon - Backs to lay for 2 points -

1:15 Southwell Granakey should run well , but one i fancy to lead is Ten Pole Tudor has the c&d form and should be a playable price also quite like Special Cuvee usually settles midrace and has been knocking on the door the last few runs.  Price check A.M

1:45 Southwell Will play Eight Hours here in the hope that its fit , a lightly raced sort that was progressive until its last run. We should see improvement this year hoping for 8/9's.

2:55 Southwell An inform Jazrawy could be the answer here likes to race prominently has the c&d form and only failed by 3l to notch the win last time in the same class. Would like 8's before taking the chance here.

5:15 Wolverhampton In Monsieur Reynard we have a horse that can run both ways ,hasn't been far off in his last 5 starts, c&d form and hopefully a decent price. Like to see him prominent from the outset. Price check.

6:45 Wolverhampton With a 9lb turnaround for 1 3/4l with Tourist i will opt for Shifting Star here ran prominently last time, hopefully will take that option again..... a playable price could be doubtful..Interestingly Orpsie Boy , poor run over 7f last time back down in trip is 10 lb better off for 3/4 l and Flowing Cape is 4lb for 1/2 a length. I will stick with Shifting Star for now but Orpsie won't be far off and i would think the prices will reflect this.

7:45 Wolverhampton  Imperial Skylight did the business last time will stick with him again , the class 7 suits likes to be up with the pace. Should get 7+

8:15 Wolverhampton Cannot get away from Albero Di Giuda but is likely to be short, how short ? i'm not sure we will have much to play with. Can Smirfys Systems push him enough upfront to force a price drop i think he could so will take a chance here.Trip Switch also ran well last time. Overall think Albero will be too strong but willing to trade Smirfys.

8:45 Wolverhampton I have been waiting for Muktasb to show a return to some sort of form and although not a prominent racer i am willing to take a chance with this one. 3rd behind Wyatt Earp last time and i feel tonight could be his chance. With Miss Firefly in the race should provide a decent price for Muktasb

Will attemp to get on A.M but am finding it increasingly hard.

Gluck

Sup.

Thursday, 11 February 2010

Review

A great day really only unmatched in the first and that was down to impatience - trades were made on the rest. Was really happy with the 3:50 run of Taper Jean Girl , couldn't believe the price.

Bumper Issue = Bumper Day

1:50 Southwell Reigning In Rio  BSP 26 low IR 25

2:20 Southwell La Capriosa BSP 7.05 low IR 5.8

3:50 Southwell Taper Jean Girl BSP 12.53 low IR 1.36  Cannot believe it was outsider of the lot.

4:20 Southwell Hits Only Jude BSP 6 low IR 2.28

5:00 Kempton  Davids Mark BSP 20.27 low IR 15 amazed 3/4l 2nd
                        Sonhador BSP 15.91 low IR 11

6:30 Kempton Cavalry Guard BSP 28.44 low IR 8.20

7:00 Kempton Kings Sabre BSP 7.87 low IR 5

8:00 Kempton Highland Harvest BSP 7 low IR 4.6

Will be on later with a look at tomorrow.

A look forward to Southwell and Kempton

Bumper Issue tonight , hope all goes well for these Backs to Lay

1:50 Southwell A very poor race and in Reigning in Rio we have a prominent racer with c&d form that is fairly unexposed . Hopefully his run over hurdles,although 62 days ago,has put him straight for this his seasonal  reappearance,Should get a decent price on this one.

2:20 Southwell I would think First Swallow will be favourite in this as has had some decent runs lately. From a value point of view i will side with La Capriosa ran well, up with the pace 6 days ago after 3 months off has the c&d form and has won in class 5 ..... Guto also looked to be coming back to form last time out but as a hold up horse i will give him a miss today.

3:50 Southwell They are plumbing the depths today at Southwell. Would think Tiger Hawk will be fav. here and an interesting contender in Springwell Giant may well prove the market mover, but  i will stick with Taper Jean Girl has the c&d form will be up with the pace and was rather well supported last time out over 7f today could be the day.

4:20 Southwell Plenty of pace here , Gaily Noble could quite easily go in again after its large odds win last time my two selections here which i will double trade are Elusive Fame and Hits Only Jude both will add pace to the race also and both have course form so go on the surface. Should get decent prices about the two. Will make a decision in the morning if to double or select either one.

5:00 Kempton Davids Mark and Jessica Wigmo come out best of the 5 that met on the 28 th of January they are both hold up types . I myself cannot see Jessica getting up over 6f and feel  it needs the 7f these days.In Davids Mark i think i have a possible but Sonhador interests me because it can run both ways up with the pace or hold up was favourite for the 28th race ut feel it only just gets home over 6f. Out of the two, head says Davids but my instinct says Sonhador, will look in the morning.

6:30 Kempton Cavalry Guard back down to 7f is the selection in this race , should be about his time now and 7f looks the best trip. Usually races mid field and upwards will be battling hard at the finish. Hope for a good double figure price here.

7:00 Kempton In Kings Sabre we have a prominent racer who seems to have been fiddled about with distance wise , has run some of his best races over 7f and think we may get a bit of value with a few recent winners in the race.

8:00 Kempton Highland Harvest looked on its way back last time and is well upto winning a class 5 , kempton seems to suit and will be up with the pace.Plenty of horses that showed promise last time out so hope for 10+ here.

Will be on in the morning with any updates and a general mull over the prices. Must of been tiring towards the end as wasn't eulogising so much.

Gluck

Sup

Wednesday, 10 February 2010

Review of the Day

A poor day really 2 matched and 2 not , basically there was no value in the 2 that went unmatched and to change my mind was ridiculous anyway . I live and learn.

1:55 Lingfield  Officer In Command  BSP 4.58 won

2:05 Southwell Indian Skipper BSP 3.22 low IR 2,6 got this one all wrong , shouldn't have changed tact.

2:25 Lingfield Teen Ager BSP 9.73 low IR 1.73

2:55 Lingfield Erinjay BSP 3.02 low IR 2.98

2:05 Southwell Update

Cannot bring myself to do Excellent Show at that price 2.4 on Betfair at the moment, at the prices i will opt for Indian Skipper @ 3.35 + and get out at 2 he will be finishing quick and the fact they persist over 5f leads me to believe he will be in the shake up.

Lingfield and Southwell Backs to Lay

A few from Lingfield and just the one from Southwell -

1:55 Lingfield An interesting event in that i couldn't see where the pace was coming from , i would think favouritism will be fought out between Bolanderi and Rapid City but as they are both hold up horses they were cast aside by the Back to Lay radar. As a side note i would prefer Black N Brew as a winner candidate over the two previously mentioned. Anyway as my back to lay i am selecting Officer In Command the reason is that i feel he will put the pace to the race and if ridden well will be at the forefront of things for a long way. Prominent in his pipe opener over a mile (class4) on January the 30th now back to class 5 and over the distance that he was a 1/2 l fourth in , in August (his only try at this distance) seemed to suit that day and i think improvement will be seen today.

2:25 Lingfield Teen Ager in this one for me , led up and 3l clear til a furlong out over a mile on his comeback from over 6 months off in a class 5. Down to class 6 today and a furlong less spells a good opportunity to me. Has the c&d form will be thereabouts or bounce a chance i will take.

2:55 Lingfield Erinjay i would think will be fairly short in this one , i would offer up the extra furlong as his excuse last time over 9f (class 4) back to the mile and class 5 would think he will take all the beating . Hopefully get about 4 on this with Zerzura in the race maybe more. Will be at the forefront and go low.

2:05 Southwell On a line through Nickel Silver , Indian Skipper should be about 6 lengths to the good over Absa Lutte this in my opinion will not happen the problem being they are both hold up types. Also through Nickel Silver, Indian is dead level with Colorus, as we know with 5f sprinters the form can never be taken at face value. So a few more spokes. Excellent Show should lead , Colorus chasing , Pawan  (who is due one), Absa Lutte and Indian Skipper at the rear (3 held up) . If Excellent Show gets a run on the field we're made here is the trade. Colorus will try to gain and hopefully fade ,Absa Lutte gets next run may come close with Pawan and Indian Skipper closing fast. That is the race in my head , does it bare out ? we will see. A price check here as the small amount of runners and the way the race pans out could see some good highs and lows.

That's all from me , happy price chasing.

Gluck

Sup

Tuesday, 9 February 2010

Southwell Review

Clean sweep again and if the below results don't tell you Backs to Lay work , nothing will. All the below horses were freely available at bigger odds pre race. I only stick to two point trades as over time this has proven the most viable option,but for those that seek higher rewards for smaller outlay the gains are there for you to see.

2:20 Southwell  Pavement Games BSP 4.60 low IR 1.65
                         Young George BSP 22.42 low IR 6

2:50 Southwell  Music Box Express BSP 8.2 low IR 5.2

4:20 Southwell  Sternian BSP 16.81 low IR 3

Will be on in a while with a look at Lingfield and half a Southwell card.

Southwell for Tuesday

A few of interest , although tight affairs.

2:20 Southwell I would  think Billie Jean will be quite a hot favourite for this race as the only one with c&d form, but looking to eek some value out of the race i will stick with one that i have highlighted before. In Pavement Games we have a filly that i am hoping should be spot on for today, was held up last time over 6f but previously was prominent when running over 5f this could prove an option for a trade. Another that is of interest  is Young George prominent and pulling on his seasonal reappearance last time , he is lightly raced and should have some improvement to come.Of the two i think i will opt for Pavement Games as she is 3lb and 4 lengths better off with Sandy Toes and 3 lb and 3 lengths better off with Annia Galeria on their 22nd of January run. This could prove a price shortener as its there in black and white but i'm fairly sure she will give a good account.

2:50 Southwell An interesting race as 4 of the 5 are prominent racers . Guto in his prime would waltz all over these and if fit could be of interest.Monte Major has the c&d form but just comes up short in my book. I have a feeling this will be between Music Box Express and Spic N Span the latter is discarded as will probably be too short. Music Box Express likes to lead and sees out 6f which in this case over 5f maybe whats required as the pace will be frenetic. He has the c&d form and with such a small field as long as we get a decent price we should see enough price fluctuations to make that 2 point trade.

4:20 Southwell An interesting runner at a likely big price is Sternian . Only ran the 3 maidens so far under a lady jockey and with Luke Morris on board today i can see some improvement coming our way.On her second run she was up with the pace until 1 out over 9f , the drop to the mile should suit. Last time over 10f was never put in the race and i will take a chance that this filly improves today.

Gluck

Sup

Monday, 8 February 2010

Missed out on one today

Matched up on all apart from Ishiadancer , sods law that of the other two up with the pace horses named in the preview one won and the other halved in price - thems the breaks.

Xpressmaite was taken at a much higher price than Betfair SP, so was an easy trade. Was very glad that the final race came up trumps.

2:00 Bookiesindex Boy BSP 15.31 low IR 6

3:00 Ravi River  BSP 3.90  won

3:30 Ishiadancer BSP 7.03 low IR 7

4:00 Xpressmaite BSP 15.41 low IR 14

5:30 Make Amends BSP 8.23 won

Will be on later with a look at Southwell tomorrow.

Sunday, 7 February 2010

Wolverhampton Tomorrow Backs to Lay.

Have 5 for Tomorrow 2 point trade on each prices allowing . I am looking forward to the last.

2:00 Wolverhampton Bookiesindex Boy could be the answer in this testing opener down to class 6 for the first time this winter, likes to be up with the pace and is a strong traveller , has the c&d form and a fourth last time in class 5 indicated a return to form was on the cards. Hope for 7's plus on this one. 

3:00 Wolverhampton Ravi River ran a race on Saturday that was out of character to his other runs in that he was allowed his head and took it from the front, in doing so came right back to form and was only a length from the winner in 3rd at the end . More of the same today could see him go close just hope for a decent price.  

3:30 Wolverhampton Plenty of pace in this race Smalljohn was a selection last time and won i would think the weight rise will stop him today , Kipchak i just cannot have in this class but will still probably force the pace and Ishiadancer who is easily upto winning in this class infact last time in class 5 led and won by 5l. Would hope that with Smalljohn and the closer Seldom in the race we may get 5 about Ishia.

4:00 Wolverhampton Stick my neck out time now and a selection that doesn't tick the right boxes but was one that i spotted IR a while back. I have waited for him to step back up to 9f and a drop in class so although just shy of 9f today i will put him up as a back to lay. Xpress Maite was seen to good effect over this trip 3 runs ago in a class 4, although 6 l off the winner in the end was always finishing and a drop to this class could see him get it right. Double figure price required.

5:30 Wolverhampton Grey Command has only gone up a pound for getting his hat-trick on Friday and you would think unopposable but his last two runs have come very quickly. In Make Amends we have a horse that sees out another 1f on top of this distance and if Grey Command leads as per , Make Amends can sit in and will close at the end . If as i would think Grey Command will be short this should give us a price to play with on the selection. 

Gluck

Sup

Review of the Day

All 3 matched up on 2 point trades.


1:40 Ansells Pride BSP 5.02 low IR 2.14

3:40 Taper Jean Girl  BSP 13.50 low IR 8

4:40 Boy Dancer BSP 13 low IR 8

Myself on Boy Dancer tried for a little more and was only partially matched at 8's , must learn to stick to whats easy.

Back on later looks like it's Wolverhampton tomorrow.

Update

Already traded out on Solis was on at 7.4 out at 5.4

So will have a bit on Ansells on at 6.4 out at 4.4

Of the remainder -

15:40 Taper Jean Girl have decided on , on at 10 + out at 8

16:40 Looking for 11 on Boy Dancer.

Southwell on Sunday

Just the three races previewed today.

1:40 Southwell Ansells Pride presents us with an early chance to get off the mark , a horse who on his penultimate start was only a 1/4 l off winning albeit over 1 f further.  Well upto winning this class 5 will be up the front from the outset and represents a chance for me to trade a couple of points. Price check required here as could be a tad skinny.Another that catches my eye is Solis who for a 4 yr old has not had much racing has won a class 6 and the step up in trip could see improvement.Miss Bootylishes is a pound better off with Borasco on their last meeting and her style of running would suggest she will not be far off yet again.She has the c&d form that is almost a prerequisite here. May double trade 2 of these yet prices will probably dominate the decision.

3:40 Southwell  Bertie Buckle is on the same weight as when coming second and beating Taper Jean Girl last time by 1 3/4l , probably has a little more improvement in him than the latter . After only his second run in a handicap will expect him to be to the fore today and go very close . A note of caution in that the extra furlong may not suit whereas Taper has won over c & d .  A decision will be made pre racing as i suspect the race may revolve around these two as i would like to think D'Uberville would need a little further.

4:40 Southwell Boy Dancer is today running over a trip much more suited to him after showing hints of wellbeing  the last twice, only 3 1/4l off the winner last time although seventh and i just feel back to this distance and with his last run to blow the cobwebs away he will be seen in a better light today.Probably a small trade here.

Will certainly be on pre racing , Gluck

Sup