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Saturday, 27 February 2010

Lingfield for Saturday

A decent enough card at Lingfield and some of the better handicappers are starting to appear now. As it stands just have the two races with Backs to lay in. Have an enjoyable Saturday and will see you at results time....

3:15 Lingfield Bags of pace in this race with the likes of Thoughtsofstardom 3lb wrong in the weights,Colorus on his highest ever winning mark,Glamorous Spirit still capable of going close of this mark and Peak District below last winning mark all like to lead the way. I suspect the race will be set up for a closer and in Total Impact we may have that horse still on a decent mark in good form with himself likes the distance . I just have an inkling that Peak District may be held off the pace too and may double trade here for 10% on each.

3:50 Lingfield Think this rests between Jaconet and Arganil but would think Smarten Die may try to lead them. Arganil is actually 2lb better off for the 4 1/2l that he was beaten last time the two met in a listed event ,he has the race fitness and likes to stalk.But Jaconet likes to lead and for this reason i will play a small percentage trade on her.

Gluck

Sup

Review

An up and down day with everything matched but then getting drawn to Dundalk late on and losing a percentage of my days profit on the last two races ............... ridiculous really as i have learnt over the years it's no use going in blind, just a recipe for disaster, but so easily done.

2:30 Southwell Hypnotic Gaze BSP 4.13 low IR 4 left this one out and played Sadeek as thought it was rather low in comparison to General Tufto as they were fairly closely matched as mentioned in the preview.
                       Sadeek BSP  9.59 low IR 5 freely available at 14 + pre off and then gambled in the last 10 minutes or so. 

3:40 Southwell Magic Millie BSP 10.61 low IR 6.4

5:10 Wolverhampton Tag Team BSP 3.35 low IR 2.42

5:40 Wolverhampton Methaaly BSP 20.60 low IR 16.50

6:10 Wolverhampton Bookiesindex Boy BSP 6.02 low IR 3.75

7:40 Wolverhampton Sonhador BSP 9.44 low IR 8.8 again was gambled pre off

8:10 Wolverhampton Decider BSP 9.01 low IR 8.4 again available at higher price pre off and fairly sure went below 7 IR

Have the Lingfield card done will post in a bit.......

Thursday, 25 February 2010

Southwell and Wolverhampton for Friday

Will refrain from quoting early prices as generally out of kilter as to what they will be come pre off.

Seven in all , two from Southwell , a bit of a quiet afternoon followed by five from Sprintsville (Wolverhampton).

Backs to lay for your percentage play ..........

2:30 Southwell Hypnotic Gaze has been knocking on the door recently , likes to be prominent and meets General Tufto on 2lb better terms for the head beating over c&d 2 runs ago. Also sees out 9f so have a general feeling this will be there until the end . Sadeek well below his last winning mark and back to probably his best distance , also likes to be prominent , can put in a bold show also . May double trade depending on prices.

3:40 Southwell Magic Millie has a 5lb pull for the 3/4l she was beaten by Step To It over c&d last time , raced quite prominently that day , that was only her 5th race and improvement will be forthcoming. Hopefully get a price that isn't too short.

5:10 Kempton Was interested in Davids Mark here but he is a hold up horse and although on a winning mark, the big field and the fact that it is an amateur event put me off. Mister Incredible merits a mention as likes to be prominent only slightly above his last winning mark and in this 13 runner event , if at the right price may be able to steal a percentage here. The  negatives being that most of his best form has been at Southwell and his draw. All in all Tag Team will  be the play as has been knocking on the door likes to lead and has only just been ran out of it the last 3 times , his best effort of those being over c&d 2 runs ago. Price check needed.

5:40 Kempton One would think Billie Red will still lead this field but for how long is the question , he is on a career high mark now and in Methaaly meets a horse who is receiving 6lb for the 3/4 l beating on the 13th of February. Methaaly likes to be up with the pace too and will undoubtedly be there at the finish as only slightly above last winning mark now.

6:10 Kempton Bookiesindex Boy travels so well throughout his races he always attracts the eye of the in running punter more a stalker than anything. Now well below his last winning mark and it's just if he can be cajoled to get his head infront.Was only beaten a length last time when hampered at the start. As long as a decent price is available will back to lay for a well thought out percentage.

7:40 Kempton If Triskaidekaphobia is a large double figure price will play him as can lead this field  for 4f only a touch above his last winning mark now and last time showed the sort of form required. With Sir Loin ,the draw is awful, but there is bound to be some pace on and may set the race up for a closer . Sonhador can run both ways stalk or held up and is well handicapped at the moment and the pace could play into his hands.I would think Admiral Bond will be fav. as has gone very close the last twice.

8:10 Kempton Decider has been running very consistently recently and likes to be up with the pace , again a price check as anything 9+ would be playable .

Well after that lot feel as though i have gone further than most of the selections will tomorrow.

Gluck

Sup

Review

A fairly successful day and have now some thinking to do as some selections are proving stronger than others and going very low in running . My thinking has always been between 10 & 20% of stake per trade and this has proved successful but as the bank has built there is now room for a wider range on the trades and the selections are proving the point. Obviously more risk is involved as some will not sink below the mark required thus losing total stake but i have always recovered from these positions with the strength of selection.

Maybe one to mull over for the future but will stick with what works for now.

The Results with my findings added :-

4.20 Southwell  Hits Only Jude BSP 5.06  Won  Available at 5.8 10 minutes pre off

4:50 Southwell  Kladester BSP 11.98 low IR 6.8 traded out pre off - was 7.4 at off

5:20 Southwell  Magic Haze BSP 9.11 low IR  7 Pre off high of 10.5 i recorded a 6.8 low

7:10 Kempton  Boldinor BSP 6.14 low IR 3.8 A pre off high of 9.2 backed down to 7 and below 5 mins before off.                          Spoof Master BSP 19.66 IR low of 1.08 Was available at 23 pre off .... nuff said.

7:40 Kempton  Little Pete BSP 4.84  Won  10 minutes before race was available at 7.8 backed down to 4.9 at the off.

8:10 Kempton  Mudhish BSP 13.44 low IR 12  Was available at 16 pre off , missed out here as was overly greedy , maybe proves a point as to the aforementioned comments.

Back on later with looks at Southwell and Wolverhampton .............

A look at Southwell and Kempton

Six in all for today , three from Southwell and three from Kempton.

Backs to lay for your percentage play ...............................

4:20 Southwell Wyatt Earp is still on a good mark , but i have my doubts as to his suitability to Southwells surface. Liked good - good to firm on turf and i just think this may be a persuasive enough argument to look elsewhere. Hits Only Jude is the selection here has the c&d form was knocking on the door over 7f last time and although never winning off this mark has had some close up seconds. Currently 5.2 on Betfair if i can secure 7 or above will be happy.

4:50 A bit of a standout here for me is Kladester. Off course for 8 months and returned to be 2 and a half length second at Wolverhampton 34 days ago , has a c&d win to his name . The only negatives are hold up and bounce factor. Currently 8.8 on Betfair could go alot shorter in my opinion. Mackintosh also has been knocking on the door lately and the drop back to 7f could do him a favour has ran both ways recently ( prominent and hold up ) currently 7.6 on Betfair. May double trade these as at least if Kladester did bounce would cover some of the staking.

5:20 Southwell Royal Crest gets 12 lb for the 8 lengths it was beaten last time from Isitcozimcool but i cannot see either of these winning. Magic Haze was ridden prominently last time has the c&d form and runs today off the same mark. Currently trading at 6.8 i would think a 2 point trade would be attainable here.

7:10 Kempton The race or should i say betting will probably revolve around Muktasb again as it's not an if it's just a when it will win. Spoof Master was the selection last time and will be here as he ran a perfect race for a back to lay , fast out and led until obviously tiring inside the last 1f. Boldinor is still of interest too as still on a mark that he has won off before, has the c&d form and likes to be prominent.Spoof Master currently 14 looks an easy 2 point option.

7:40 Kempton Little Pete looks the one here knocking on the door last two runs , seems to run his best races as a stalker, but the step upto 7f seems to suit and is well handicapped on some form. Hopefully the drop to a class 6 handicap will see him in a better light. Currently 7.4 so should be about the right price for the two point back to lay.

8:10 Kempton Clive Brittain seems to have hit the ground running for this time of year and in Mudhish has a likely candidate for a back to lay. Off the back of a good second over 6f last time and with some of his best form over 7f (tonights distance). Likes to be prominent and off this mark has a chance of being there to the end. Trading at 7.8 at the moment so around the right price for a trade.

Gluck

Sup

Wednesday, 24 February 2010

Recovery Complete

Managed to scrape a v.small profit , if i had been greedy with the last a big profit. That i am afraid is not my style and small slow and steady is the game.

Here are the results:

2:10 Lingfield Bishopbriggs BSP 8.01 low IR 7.6 unmatched on this , as have already reported.

4:55 Lingfield Candyfloss Girl  BSP 6 Won

7:00 Kempton Methaaly  BSP 10 low IR 8  available 15/16 pre off , i recorded a low of 7.2 IR

8:30 Kempton Red Current BSP 24 low IR 1.5

Overall a pleasing day , with just the Bishopbriggs debacle to contend with psychologically.

On later with a look at Southwell and Kempton................

2:10

Failed to match on Bishopbriggs although running round in second most of the way, was being layed most of the time. I am afraid this is the side of racing that you have to decipher if you are going to get your trades correct. A little quote to prove the point -

 They knew. Always needs to lead, has won off a higher mark, nothing to dismiss its chance. Yet they held it up off the pace today, the horse pulled all the way wanting to quicken up. Jockey held on to it and it found nothing. Lying 2nd and trading at 26 in running. They knew, the ******* cnuts!

Lets hope that i can recover with the other 3 ............ Gluck

Tuesday, 23 February 2010

A look at Lingfield and Kempton for Wednesday

Two from each today as most of the races didn't suit ....................... Back to Lay for your percentage play.


2:10 Lingfield Bishopbriggs is still fairly well treated and goes for his hat-trick would think he will be fairly short and anything around 5's will do for a percentage trade. Likes to lead and one would think he will go fairly low.

4:55 Lingfield Candyfloss Girl is probably still on a mark that she can exploit and you would like to think she can improve for her first run of the campaign. Likes to be prominent and was only 3/4 of a length away on her reappearance. Has showed signs of petulance in the past so don't set your sights too high.

7:00 Kempton Methaaly showed enough last time to suggest he is coming to hand and can go close off this mark.Ran prominently last time but can run either way and currently at 7.6 on Betfair looks like a two point trade should be achievable. Obviously Sutton Veny going for the hat trick is the pace in the race but too short to trade and would think vulnerable under todays conditions.

8:30 Kempton Red Current is the selection here , likes to be up the front of things and just marginally above the mark of her last win. The mile seems to suit and has a fairly able jockey on board , which is always a plus in this type of race. Currently 13 on Betfair seems a value price and wouldn't be surprised to be traded out pre off tomorrow. Will take a watching brief for now to get a feel for the market.

Gluck

Sup

Review

An awful start , followed by the recovery ...........

3:40 Lingfield Gallantry BSP 20.84 low IR 19.5 No match here ........ he just got going too late only beaten 2 & a 1/4 lengths . I just took this one on the chin , certainly one to watch for though.

4:10 Lingfield Goodbye Cash BSP 7.98 low IR 6 available pre off for 8.4 +  easy match

4:40 Lingfield Diane's Choice BSP 9.71 Won
                     Spoofmaster BSP 20.55 low IR 6.2 these two were successfully double traded.

5:10 Lingfield Non runner

V.Small gain today thanks to the double trade , will be on later with a look at Lingfield and Kempton.

A look at Lingfield

Five for tomorrow, backs to lay for two points ........................

3:40 Lingfield Den's Gift has a 2lb pull for a length with Pegasus Again on 30th Dec. running. Gallantry has a 3lb pull for 3lengths. Pegasus Again and Den's Gift like to lead and i just feel the pace of the race will suit Gallantry who is now well handicapped and has been knocking on the door lately , has the c&d form and will be a playable price ( currently 13 on BF ).

4:10 Lingfield Goodbye Cash looks a good back to lay here back down to 7f likes to lead has the c&d form and although a tad higher than winning her last run has the ability. Currently trading at 10 on Betfair this looks a good price for a two point back to lay.

4:40 Lingfield One would think Muktasb will be after making amends for the failed gamble last time currently 4.3 and probably worth a chance at that price as you would think he will go low. Dianes Choice runs as a hold up and returns back to 6f and the distance of her last win is still well handicapped on previous form and will run her race.I quite like Spoof Master back to the mark where he ran Tanley to 1/2l over c&d 3 runs back , likes to be at the forefront of things and at 11 on Betfair at the moment looks a workable price. Infact will probably double trade Spoof and Diane both 11 at the moment.Price check in the morning. As a side note Obe Brave although winning last time currently trading at 6.8 looks a good lay to me hasn't won over the distance since April 06 and with the 6lb extra may struggle to get into race.

5:10 Lingfield After todays win Granny McPhee is trading as a very low favourite on Betfair but is not a definite to take part so early prices are out of the window. One that takes my eye albeit a rather chancey one is Blue Eyed Eloise on the same mark as when winning over c&d on her last run in April 08 . Obviously being off the course for 689 days puts a big question mark over her fitness but if fit and she likes to be up with the pace, i will secure a double figure price and a two point trade looks attainable.

Happy hunting and Gluck

Sup

Monday, 22 February 2010

Review

A very tough , on the first of my week long holiday, day overall . Nothing came easy and felt like i was fighting for everything. Throughout racing have jotted down some prices which i will put down alongside the usual format for results.

2:40 Wolverhampton Micky's Knock Off  BSP 4.8 low IR 4.2  The horse was available at a high of 10 for £4 but a more reasonable 9.6 for £900 pre off . I myself traded out pre race and recorded him at a low IR of 4.1 for £55 and 4.2 for £354.

3:10 Wolverhampton Sotik Star BSP 3.63 low IR 3.05  available at a high of 5.5 for £19 and £106 at 5 the recorded low was 3.05  . Left this one alone as was too low for how i felt it would run, but the 2 point spread was there for the taking if lucky enough to get the prices.........

4:20 Wolverhampton Mighty Mover BSP 20 low IR 16  avalable at a high of 25 for £5 and 22 for £145 pre off and went to a low pre off of 15.5 . Traded out pre off here.

5:55 Wolverhampton Blue Charm BSP 49.92 low IR 40 available as high as 55 pre off and i recorded a low of 32 IR

2:55 Lingfield Wavertree Warrior BSP 4.50 low IR 1.07 available pre off 4.9 £26 and 4.7 £1112

4.05 Lingfield Bobs Dream Flight BSP 7.8  low IR 7.8 available pre off as high as 12.5 £216 and 11.5 £1504 recorded a low of 7.2 IR . Traded out pre off again here but the major problem was the jockey held him up, obviously not a going day and will watch for him in future.

So although a profit everthing was governed by margins , not so sure i enjoy sitting live as letting the bot do the work. Think the major problem today in hindsight apart from Wavertree was the selections were not as strong or did not run as expected.

Will be on later with a look at Lingfield.............

Wolverhampton and Lingfield for Monday

Hope the meetings are on, i find there is nothing worse than putting in the hard work and never seeing if you were right or wrong.

Anyway four from Woverhampton and a couple from Lingfield for you to look over.

2:40 Wolverhampton I would think this will be a fairly open market with Lewyn at the head of it. Quite a few that can lead up, but my selection for a back to lay is Micky's Knock Off back below his last winning mark after a blow out on the 10 th of Feb. Could be spot on for today with a 17lb turnaround in the weights for 6l with Lewyn on their 16th of October running. My only reservation would be if the 5f will suit. A price check in the morning is required.

3:10 Wolverhampton Sotik Star could be the value here ,won over c&d last August , had two runs back this year failing by 2 and 3/4 lengths on his comeback run, then a run in a claimer to put him right. Hopefully i will get a high single figure price + . Usually ridden from the back making his move midway through the race is well handicapped on turf form and as previously mentioned is back to the scene of his last win.

4:20 Wolverhampton Mighty Mover in this one for me, has a c&d win to his name, likes to race prominently. He is below the mark when a 1/2l second and 2l second around this time last year and should give a good account of himself.

5:55 Wolverhampton Struggling to see the pace in this race, as most seem to be hold ups. In Blue Charm we have a horse that has been ridden both ways, usually prominently over 7f hold up over the mile. So i am hoping that he will be prominent today and could be spot on after his comeback run on the 8th of Feb. One would think Orangeleg will be favourite so hopefully i will get a bit of value here.

2:55 Lingfield There is no doubt that Wavertree Warrior will be there or thereabouts at the end but i wouldn't think that a workable price will be available. But again here can only see Wavertree as the pace in the race and could get a very easy lead and off this mark should be an easy percentage trade.

4:05 Lingfield Kingsgaite Castle has looked like he could win off this mark in his last two runs and with Sherjawy on an all time high mark. Looks as though Bobs Dreamflight could be the one here likes to lead on an all time low mark has the c&d form . A perfect back to lay really.


Gluck and let's hope racing goes ahead .......................

Sup