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Saturday, 20 February 2010

Southwell for Sunday

Opportunities seem few and far between today, either distance or make up of the race. So here are two that will hopefully do the business. Backs to lay for 2 points +

3:55 Southwell Plenty of pace in this race with Ishia Dancer and Bel Cantor & Hits Only Jude ( has never won over 7f ) , because of all the pace i feel i should look at the ones that come from off it and in Bennelong we have a horse whose form figures do not look spectacular but on closer inspection has not been far off over a mile recently and a strongly run 7f may suit. May pay to get an early price as with any Evans horse if they like its chances the money will come.

5:00 Southwell In Business Class we have a horse that seems to run fairly well here , the distance is right like to be up with the pace. The one negative is on the fitness side but i feel that either way will either hit the front and blow up or go on. Should be able to snatch two points.

Gluck

Sup

Review ...... Phew !!

Glad to say that the backs to lay did well again , slightly let down by Basra. Decent priced winner too.

2:50 Lingfield Orchard Supreme BSP 52.66 low IR 15

3:20 Lingfield Gargano BSP 8.32 low IR 1.50

3:55 Lingfield Basra BSP 13.13 low IR 13.5

4:30 Lingfield Mint Whip BSP 16 Won

Basra put a slight dent in the profit - will be on later with a look at Southwell for Sunday.

Friday, 19 February 2010

Lingfield for Saturday

I originally came up with just the first selection on my trawl through this card . This was down to the fact i usually avoid maidens,claimers and races beyond a mile(unless a standout that has been followed), so in fact the races that are on this card were not suitable.Be very wary, as i will be, when taking any of the 3 latter backs to lay on as they do not come under the usual guidelines that i set myself. I have basically gone outside the usual criteria, which i occasionally do, to try and find some value on a poor card for the blog................



2:50 Lingfield  A bit of a shot in the dark with this one and only because it is so well handicapped now. Orchard Supreme can run both ways prominent or hold up, has the c&d form and interestingly came back from a similar break and won a class 2 last year off a superior mark.

3:20 Lingfield Was Gargano found out by the handicapper last time or Southwells surface . Likes to lead and realistically i should swerve the race altogether as 1m 4f leaves the back to lay option a wide open gamble. I feel here that if a price of 6+ can be achieved then it's worth the risk otherwise leave alone.

3.55 Lingfield Basra and December Draw met trouble in running last time. December Draw will most likely be too short a price for a back to lay . Basra as a hold up horse is also a liability but one i  feel will represent value and in a field with so few runners a two point back to lay can be attained.

4:30 Lingfield Mint Whip was selected last time and didn't let the blog down coming a close 4th. Once again i think she will be up with the pace and gives me a back to lay option, with her fillies allowance should give a good account.

Have a great Saturdays sport and Gluck

Sup

Review

A great day with everthing  going to plan and two winners in the mix also

1:55 Lingfield Non Runner

2:25 Lingfield Bollywood Style BSP 5.10 Won

3:00 Lingfield Towy Boy BSP 7.2 low IR 2.04

3:35 Lingfield Vintage BSP 3.38 Won,was available at 8 + last night on BF

5:15 Wolverhampton Young George BSP 15.68 low IR 10.5

5:45 Wolverhampton Paktolos BSP 7 low IR 5.2 drifted to 8 in running before hitting that low

8:15 Wolverhampton Glamour Cat BSP 5.36 low IR 2.52

On later with a look at Lingfield for Saturday .........................

Thursday, 18 February 2010

Lingfield and Wolverhampton for Friday

Four at Lingfield and three at Wolverhampton for your perusal ....................... Back to Lay for two points.

1:55 Lingfield As stated 3 days ago Obe Gold hasn't won over 7f since January 06 and although consistently running well is obviously vulnerable over this distance.Interesting that Guillambert gets off Obe to ride Ravi River yet Ravi is wrong at the weights. Lastkingofscotland is the selection here likes to lead sees out a mile and his last run in this grade saw him a head second to Wrighty Almighty over a mile. Down a furlong today with Ravi and Obe at the head of the betting market should give us a decent price to play with.

2:25 Lingfield Bollywood Style has been knocking on the door recently and if a high single or double figure price can be secured she will be the selection here. Has the c&d form and has not been far off , off this mark recently. The reason a good price is to be secured is because of the horses running style , usually a stalker which sometimes leaves her open to trouble.

3:00 Lingfield Pipers Piping will probably be favourite to go in again , but i will side with the maiden Towy Boy likes to be prominent , has ran some of his best races over 7f and was made favourite, not surprisingly last time. That race was over 6f back to 7f today should do the trick for a back to lay.

3:35 Lingfield This race is all about where the value lies and a price check will be required . Fromsong is a pound better off with Thoughtsofstardom  for a 2l beating over 5f on the 27th of Jan , in the same race Handsome Cross was a 1/2 length second and meets Thoughts on the same terms.Fromsong likes to be prominent as does Thoughtsofstardom, Handsome Cross is hold up . On the other hand Vintage can be ridden to suit race conditions and is such a strong traveller throughout his races that he will be my selection . Marginally above his last winning mark looks the one for the back to lay here as 6f seems to suit.

5:15 Wolverhampton Turf Time and Exceed Power meet Duke Of Rainford on worse terms than when behind him on the 22nd of January.Lady Brickhouse is 2lb better off with Turf Time for a head.Think the betting will revolve around these 3 . Young George for me looks a lightly raced type that will possibly improve  likes to be up with the pace and at the prices should be quite tradeable.

5:45 Wolverhampton Don't really know what Paktolos' price will be ( currently 4.5 on BF ) i think his run over c&d two runs back  looked like he improved for the step up in distance and can see him going in again. Will back to lay but may be worth waiting until IR as he gets held up at the back. At 5 upward is worth a back to lay.

8:15 Wolverhampton Will be interesting to see how short Demonstrative goes as was impressive last time. The Glamour Cat was equally impressive first time up this year and you can only put its last run down to a bounce. This and handicap debutant Libertino interest me. Glamour Cat currently 6.6 on betfair will be the selection as that win looked easy and at the prices think there is value there.

We seem to be on All Weather over load at the moment with 2 meeting most days , although this offers up many oportunities i must be careful not to over do it.

Gluck and may those runners go short ...........

Review of the Day in a Hooverless house.

You can never trust a women to keep her meddling hands out - Mrs unplugged computer to hoover up this morning thus disabling the bot for backing the selections . So therefore missed all the Southwell selections.Not best pleased shall we say , especially with a selection of four other plugs in the room.

Apologies to any women that look in , your obviously not plug happy.

Here are the Bsp's and lows anyhow -

1:50 Southwell Patachou BSP 6.47 low IR 5.8 probably would not of matched up here.

2:20 Southwell Boss Hog BSP 5.2 low IR 3.05

4:05 Southwell Guto BSP 16.09 low IR 7.6 Figaro made the two points although left this out.

6:00 Kempton Midnight Bay BSP 5.1 low IR 2.1

7:00 Kempton Goodbye Cash BSP 14.45 low IR 8.2

8:00 Kempton Non Runner

Not a bad afternoon , missed the only one probably not to match, although i don't know what price it was earlier . So onto tomorrow , will be on later with a look at Lingfield and Wolverhampton.

Wednesday, 17 February 2010

Southwell and Kempton for Thursday

Three from Southwell and three from Kempton . Backs to lay for 2 points.

1:50 Southwell If Taper Jean Girl is ridden in her usual way i cannot see her getting a mile at Southwell. So i will take a chance here as nothing is over inspiring on Patachou obviously after a lenient handicap mark on its 3rd run when showing nothing over a mile. The second run is the one that interests me. Over 7f  no clear run when switched,kept on to be a 2 and 3/4 length 3rd. The mile should suit and the price should too.

2:20 Southwell Boss Hog is well handicapped now, won in February last year and can be given a chance in this 6 runner affair. Usually stalks just behind the leaders and i think a two point trade will be attainable here. Miss Bootylishes will probably head the market.

4:05 Southwell Guto has a 10lb pull for the length and a quarter that Wheres Reilly beat him by on the 11th of Feb.La Capriosa has 9lb for 3 1/2 length. There are many in with a chance but i will go with Guto as i think Wheres Reilly will be a contender for favourite and on the above line alone that puts Guto in with a chance. Likes to race prominent and has the c&d form. Figaro Flyer also worth a mention as can stalk or held up and looks on a decent mark and coming to himself lately. Will price check but probably stick with Guto.

6:00 Kempton Midnight Bay looks to be on a winnable mark judging on his last two runs -2 1/4 length 6th over 10f and 3 length 2nd over 9f . Will the drop to 8f do the trick ? Likes to race prominently and seems to have just been run out of it the last twice.Should get a decent price with a couple of last time out winners in the race.

7:00 Kempton Island Sunset could be anything and may well make a mockery of its handicap mark. Interesting to note it was outpaced for a while over this distance on its last run. So if i was to play her i would probably wait and back in running hoping that she duplicated that race. 230 days off course is enough to make me look elsewhere. If the handicapper has this race spot on it will be very tight and i will take a chance on Goodbye Cash . Back down or should i say just below the mark that saw her run a fine 1 and a 1/4 length 3rd to Toolentidhaar over course and distance in January, she likes to lead and very often runs her race.

8:00 Kempton 3 runs since his return the last twice knocking on the door his running styles bodes well from a back to lay perspective , on the right mark to run a big one . Highland Harvest is the selection here.

Time for some shut eye , the studying of form and then putting the thoughts on the blog are taking there toll..

Gnight, Gluck

Sup

Review of the Day

Have had somebody track the prices today ( read from the graph directly after race ) as i dont think Timeforms low IR are perfectly accurate on the Betfair results page...

Anyway a great day with a lot of low prices matched every one realising the 2 point trade margin except the last , which i am still seething for attempting now ( should have been a lay ) i can only presume its burning the gallops up at home and not bringing it to the races..............................


4:00 Lingfield Forward Feline BSP 8.26 low IR 4   REPORT = 12 pre off , low IR 3.2 for £75

4.30 Lingfield Bid For Glory BSP 13.5 low IR 2.88 REPORT =14 pre off , low IR 2.88 for £90

5:00 Lingfield Captain Cool BSP11 low IR 9.4 REPORT = 10.5 pre off , low IR 6 apparently there was £35 matched at 5.1 but presume this was when the market was formed. As there was a gap in price range.

5:10 Kempton Sir Haydn BSP 9.84 low IR 5 REPORT = 9.4 pre off , low IR 4.7 for £85

5.40 Kempton R Woody BSP 7.76 low IR 5.6 REPORT = 8 pre off , low IR 5.6 for £72

6:10 Kempton Glamorous Spirit BSP 3.90 low IR 1.5 REPORT = 4 pre off , low IR 1.5 for £3793

7:10 Kempton Non Runner

7:40 Kempton Old Devil Moon BSP 5.86 low IR 5.1 REPORT = 6.8 pre off , low IR 5.1 for £911 Could not believe this was 2nd favourite , gave it a miss when taking prices this morning as was alot shorter than expected . Then like a mug went in for small change and got what i deserved. No match.


As you can see there are discrepancies on the In Running lows on some of the races but i will have to stick to these prices as a guide to how the horses did as there is no way i can be  " live " throughout racing to watch all the lows.

Will be on later with a look at Southwell and Kempton............

Tuesday, 16 February 2010

Lingfield and Kempton for Wednesday

Three from Lingfield and Four from Kempton with a chancer stuck on the end.....................

4:00 Lingfield My selection here goes a little against the grain in that it is a hold up horse, Forward Feline has been finishing well over 7f the last twice and gets the vote to be in the mix for a back to lay at the sharp end of the race . Tries a mile for the first time today and hoping may bring about enough improvement.

4:30 Lingfield After two runs back , Bid For Glory should be spot on for today usually ridden as a stalker 10f seems to suit has won as high as class 3 on the AW  albeit 2 years back . Showed last time with a 1l length 3rd over c&d that it retains some ability. Will be my back to lay , should get a reasonable price as Franco Is My Name i would think will be rather short.

5:00 Lingfield 2 3/4 length second in a class 6 first time up then made favourite for a class 4 over c&d last time makes Captain Cool a good looking back to lay receiving weight from the main protagonists. Last in that class 4 the fact remains that it must of been showing something for it to be made fav , i would think they may be after their money back today.With a Johnston handicap debutant in the field the price could be nicely playable.

5:10 Kempton Back below his last winning mark and even though it was May 09 last time he got his head infront Sir Haydn stands a chance today. Now 10 and devoid of any improvement the handicapper gives him a chance and with his regular amateur onboard will be an interesting back to lay.

5:40 Kempton R Woody back after a small rest , hasn't let me down so far so back in again. May get a bit of value here with Texas Queen in the race.

6:10 Kempton I know Absa Lutte is improving but Glamorous Spirit likes to lead and take it from the front has the c&d form and receives 9lb for a length and 3/4 on their 3rd of Feb run . I know this represents a good back to lay.Lord Of The Reins also has a 10lb pull on Absa Lutte on that running. I wouldn't want to put Absa Lutte down as a lay but with 2 in there weighted to get very close i think i have found the value options.

7:10 Kempton Ektimaal has won off this mark before although it was a couple of years ago has the c&d form likes to be prominent , i would think the price will be double digit as would have to be on top form to figure. Will give him a go .

7:40 Kempton As you may have realised by now i like to stick the odd weird and wonderful selection in now and again. So here is todays - why was Old Devil Moon made favourite for it's handicap debut ? Reading its form brings nothing to light apart from its always tried to be prominent and usually folded 1 to 2 f out. Fitness will have to be taken for granted but with a winter on its back to strengthen may just have improved.

Well there endeth the sermon , please leave any suggestions as to any improvements you would like to see on the blog or encouragement or even abuse if it all goes pear shaped..............

Gluck

Sup

Review of the Day

Lost a little on the 2:00 as tried to double trade instead of sticking to the original selection.....

2:00 Southwell Angle of Attack BSP 8.02 low IR 1.41
                       Tri Chara BSP 15.61 low IR 15 

3:00 Southwell Non runner

3:30 Southwell Elusive Fame BSP 6.55 low IR 4.50 Got very lucky here as was layed to indicate how it ran.

4:00 Southwell Bel Cantor BSP 7.15 Won

4:30 Southwell Thewinnatakesitall  BSP not published yet was a high of 30 pre off got out at 28 went as low as 20 pre off think it went 19 IR at least i don't have to retire today.

On later with a look at Lingfield and Kempton ........................

Selections For Southwell

Slow and steady Backs to Lay for a couple of Points

2:00 Southwell  Angle of Attack is the selection here, likes to lead and has been knocking on the door since his previous win over c&d . Interesting that there is not alot of pace in this race and it may therefore get an easy lead upfront. Tri Chara is now down to the mark of its last win and can run both ways ,one would think he could give a good account of himself today at a price where i could pinch a couple of points.

3:00 Southwell Obe Gold although very close a few time hasn't won over 7f since 26 th of january 2006 so there should be value elsewhere in this race even though he has been turned out quickly after sunday. Zeffirelli is a prominent racer although in and out form wise but may be a little short. Madison Belle a prominent racer who won over c&d the time before last and was unsuited by the mile last time . The drop back to 7f today should see her in the race. Kings Ace looks the one stepped back upto 7f and 4 lb better off with Madison for 3/4 of a length .

3:30 Southwell Elusive Fame is 9lb better off with Ours on 21st of jan run over c&d , likes to be prominent and seems to be well treated today this may lead to a restrictive price will check pre race.

4:00 Southwell Ingleby Arch throws up another that does not seem suited by 7f .Nightjar although consistent cannot seem to get his head infront off this mark. At least in Bel Cantor we have a horse that will be up with the pace and battle, his one recent run over 7f showed enough promise although 1 lb wrong here.

4:30 Southwell  I would think this race would revolve around Buzz Bird and Yawary . I will stick my neck out here as one that interests me is Thewinnatakesitall her best run imo came when 4l down in a maiden over 7 f on Heavy in August  since then ran a good race when 2nd in a 5f claimer at todays venue. 3 runs over 5f now stepped upto 7f rings bells in my head and was staying on over 5f last time. Not ran since mid december so fitness will have to be taken on trust. I will give it a go at a likely big price.   Warning I may be way out with this.

Well there you go 4 fairly solid selections and a fifth that may see me retire with embarassment.

Gluck

Sup

Monday, 15 February 2010

Review

All matched up today though some did not run aswell as hoped.

2:10 Wolverhampton Meikle Barfil BSP 13.98 low IR 9.4

2:40 Wolverhampton Espy BSP 5.15 Won

4:10 Wolverhampton Johnmanderville BSP 9.8 low IR 8.Freely available at 12 pre off and sure it was matched below 7 in running but for the sake of the blog will stick with result service.

5:10 Wolverhampton Almatlaie BSP BSP 14.87 low IR 10 Again was sure this was matched as low as 8

Will be on later with a look at Southwell..........................

Sunday, 14 February 2010

Wolverhampton for Monday

A few for you to muse over as possible Backs to Lay on Monday................................

2:10 Wolverhampton Meikle Barfil is the selection in this race only 3 and 3/4 l off the winner over 6f last time and back down to 5f here over c&d of previous win. Likes to be up with the pace but may be an awkward price. Another that caught the eye was Triskaidekaphobia with signs of coming back to form last time only problem here is the draw (10) and this puts me off.

2:40 Wolverhampton Some nicely interwoven form here with Jord,Obe Gold and Espy . Jord looked to come back to form last time and is a 1lb and the 1/2 l better off with Obe Gold but that was over 7f.Espy and Obe Gold come out level apart from the neck that Obe beat Espy by. So taking this in black and white i should go for Jord but my selection is Espy just on the draw advantage Espy (2) should get away nicely here and think the distance suits it better than the other two. Obe (9) and Jord (8) will leave them with some work to do. Would think prices will be closely matched.Sir Edwin Landseer is also a pound and 3 3/4l worse off with Obe on 30 th Dec running.

4:10 Wolverhampton An interesting race with a few imponderables and probably a few on a mark where they could run up a sequence, my selection here is Johnmanderville in the hope that its fit. Likes to be prominent and on all known form so far 8f seems to suit more than this 9f but as a four year old and maybe some improvement to come can see me getting a trade out of this one today. Would require double figure price i think.

5:10 Wolverhampton Dhhamaan led all the way last time but with the step up in class and  6lb ex may be value somewhere else today. Almatlaie  21st  run showed a little promise and is taken to build on this today. Lightly raced and trying 7f for the first time on the 21st was probably held up a tad too long and finished well to be a 1/4 l second. An ambitious selection but one that may pay off as expecting a decent price.


Will probably not get on pre racing as the 6 - 2 shift leaves little room for blogging pre racing.

Gluck

Sup

Round Up

Overall a good day for the blog highlighting 2 winners and a second . Here are the final 2 results.

4:50 Kempton Titus Gent BSP 16.50 low IR 15  freely available over 20 pre off. Sharjawy the other one highlighted won but is of no consequence as the trade was realised by the selection.

5:20 Kempton Don Pele BSP 5.72 Won

Cannot believe Monsieur Filloux never went below 11.5 despite being 1/2 length second.

On later with a look at Wolverhampton for Monday.

Update

Unmatched on Monsieur Filloux which was a surprise as he snatched a place, just came too late.

On Titus Gent @ 20 left Sherjawy out

and Don Pele @ 7


Hopefully these 2 will match up after the bad start................

Pricecheck

15:10 Kempton Monsieur Filloux taking the 10's at the moment feel as though this will shorten pre off as Moojeh is currently 6.2

16:50 Kempton Sherjawy and Titus Gent Happy to leave these alone until nearer the off , keep a close eye on Sherjawy price though. Currently 7.4 and 16.5.

17:20 Kempton Don Pele currently trading at 10.5 , will keep an eye on this.

Gluck