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Friday, 29 January 2010

Saturdays Back to Lays

Just the one meeting on the AW needed the rest to be truthful


2:15 Lingfield  One that i noticed took a price crash in running last time is Mint Whip , Hayley was up that day , tomorrow Hughes takes over and may conserve the extra that is needed. Hope to get a workable price on this one.

2:45 Lingfield  A decent handicap with plenty of inform runners and in Imprimis Tagula we have a front runner that is upto winning at this level it will be a good pace and they will be coming at the end but if we can get 7's should get a 2 point trade out of this.

3:20 Lingfield  I have a feeling Thunderball will run a big race in this one although may not last home as probably needs the run but i think this is his optimum trip and his last two runs over 9f and 10f can be relatively ignored . His 1/4l second in a class 4 at Kempton prompts me to use him as my back to lay selection.Should get a good double figure price.

3:55 Lingfield  In Mafeking we have a racehorse of ultra consistency although he always seems to be the bridesmaid this must be borne from the fact that he is a bit quirky but with class. Likes to be up with the pace and hopefully we will get 6+ on him for a small trade.

4:25 Lingfield  The one i like here could quite easily be a double figure price and if you scratch the surface of his last run Make Amends was only 31/2 lengths down in 10th from the winner over this c&d tracking leader all the way before fading , this came after nearly a month off , this time turned out after a week i am hoping is the key. Back to Lay hopefully get 15+ out at 10.

Well that's just about all the handicaps covered, have a great Saturday hopefully pop on sometime in the busy afternnon.

Gluck

Football Treble   Palace Middlesborough  Norwich

Well thar you go

That particular race just shows how prices can change so suddenly . Grey Command was trading IR at 1.4 with according to prices the race in the bag, when Royal Society suddenly shot down and matched the 6's that i had left up went as low as 5.

With that last trade it at least saved me from a quite awful afternoon after the great first race. Still stand at a loss but the Federer bet this morning more than made up for that.

Back soon with a few for tomorrow.

Royal Society

Taken the 13.5 on Royal Society out at 6 to minimise losses hopefully.

Not a Bad Run

Fen Spirit ran well enough just found the favourite too good. Hit 2.9 IR which if getting a better price would have been good enough.

Don Pele non runner in the next ........ so time to rest and gather my thoughts.

Fen Spirit 18:10

Seems rather low so i am going to back as doesn't leave much room for a trade. Probably put a lay up at 1.5 for stake.

Gamble

Thought all was well as the gamble started but 4.6 was as low as it went didn,t help that it totally  duffed the start . No wonder they called it Grudge i now hold one.

Browsing the Claimer 5:40

There seems to be a big price differential between Grudge and Total Impact considering there was only a length between them at Southwell , Grudge is 2 lb better off today and likes to be at the front of things also has c&d form.  Have taken the 8's out at 4.

Gluck

Bad Call

Awful call on Garstang thought i had the value but i dont think it ever came below the price taken.

4:00 Lingfield

On Garstang at 10.5 out at 7 Gluck

In from work 15:25

Just got in from work for this one ....... glad i did ,went exactly as previewed last night.

Thursday, 28 January 2010

Busy Busy Back to Lays for Tomorrow

Busy night trading football got out green on Inter when drawing then they went and won .... Ha
Athletico match just nicked a quick couple of ticks with a big bet before half time then switched off.

Perused the Federer v Tsonga match have had a small back to lay on the +6.5 market on at 2.12 out at 1.5.So hope all goes well in the morning. 6 - 3 or 4 first set should swing it .......

Now to the racing ...................

3:25 Lingfield Ten Down is chosen over Head to Head and Sherjawy here just because of his sheer pace will lead up but i would only take a 1 to 2 point trade out of this. As in the Dvinsky , Sherjawy race at Kempton tonight they just set it up for a closer . Should get a decent price on Ten Down whereas Head to Head will imo be shortish. After The Show could be your closer .

4:00 Lingfield Again a race chock full of leaders Billy Red will probably to short for what i am looking for but in Garstang we have a horse that can be up with the pace and still stays on at the end. Price check required on the two. The closer if excessive pace could be Anne of Kiev.

6:10 Wolverhampton If i was an outright laying man Indian Skipper stands out like a sore thumb here down to 5f after winning at 7f 3 runs ago. Fen Spirit likes to be at the forefront of things and will be a small back to lay here. Small field could make it interesting here price fluctuation wise.

6:40 Wolverhampton Don Pele has caught the eye recently knocking on the door in his last few runs should go close again but will need a price to work with.

8:10 Wolverhampton Royal Society has a 3lb turn around with Grey Command for basically a length and bits on their last run likes to be handy but if we get a decent price or not is another thing. Hopefully with the size of the field we may get 8 or 9 for our back to lay

Hopefully will be back on pre selections tomorrow , patience is a virtue............ reminder to oneself.

Gluck

Covered

Stakes covered and a small amount green with the back to lay of  Dickie Le Davoir matched at 16.5 went as low as 5 IR . Will be back later with a look at tomorrow.

19:55 Kempton

Dvinsky and Sherjawy are quite small odds i should think they will shorten IR  but not by much as they may take each other on. I think i will back both with a back to lay of Dickie Le Davoir to cover stakes. Gluck

That graph

Looks as though somebody joined in there judging by the amount matched at 10's anyway job done .......

6.00 £14    As low as it went IR


6.20 £4

7.00 £5

9.40 £9

9.60 £8

10.00 £468

10.50 £2 £43

11.00 £6 £25

11.50 £2

12.00 £8

13.00 £27

14.00 £65

14.77 £4

15.00 £38

15.23 £3

15.50 £550

16.00 £941

16.15 £3

16.50 £1,474

16.61 £37

17.00 £1,599

17.08 £10

17.50 £970

17.54 £7

18.00 £693

18.46 £34

18.50 £521

19.00 £666

19.38 £23

19.50 £947

20.00 £1,536

20.31 £2

21.00 £896

21.23 £23

22.00 £316 £320 £7,405

22.15 £23

23.00 £13

24.00 £1

26.00 £9

30.00 £21

36.00 £22

40.00 £10

42.00 £27

48.00 £4

L'Hirondelle

Matched up at 19.13 stake out at 14 lay for a bit more at 10 Gluck

Premature

On Pocket Too a bit early , my own bet was unmatched but could of got 8's if i had waited . Went as low as 5 IR. Not too disappointed just need to be a little more patient.

18:25 Kempton

On Pocket Too at 6.8 out at 4  Gluck

Double up

Was a bit worried about the drift out to 8 but happy to be matched up then went on to win.......

A rest now until the 18:25 .....

Unmatched

Only went 4.6 in running so a bad start at Kempton.

Taken the 6 about Clever Omneya in the next out at 3 for a double up here.

Gluck

4:55 Kempton

On Davids Mark at 6 out at 4 ......

Job Done

3:20 Southwell Good start TaperJean Girl hit as low as 6.4 IR

3:20 Southwell

Have taken 13 on Taper Jean Girl out at 8 Good Luck

Wednesday, 27 January 2010

Southwell And Kempton Back to Lay Preview

Football double in.

Now a look at tomorrows racing. Because of the lack of suitable races at Southwell i have attempted a few strange distances at Kempton, will get on tomorrow and try to update.

3:20 Southwell  Taper Jean Girl  has the beating of Bookies Index Girl on their Nov 17 th running ( pound better off ) also has course form, admittedly Bookies Index Girl has improved since that run but at the forecast prices i would rather have a back to lay on this one as Bookies will be shortish.

4:55 Kempton Davids Mark has been knocking on the door recently.Running wide round the bend last time 3 lengths off the winner at the end ,and the time before snatched up and only 3 3/4 lengths off the winner. Can run both ways so will be a seat of the pants lay. Should get a workable price.

5:25 Kempton Fairly unexposed in the context of this race is Clever Omneya led up last time over c&d in its first handicap and nearly held on , losing out by 3/4l to the winner.So likely to lead again. Back to lay here for a couple but a price check will be needed pre race.

6:25 Kempton Class 5 over 2 miles should suit Pocket Too down to the ground cannot really see it out of the places, but a back to lay as likes to set the pace and stay there.

7:25 Kempton Another leader for the back to lays in L'Hirondelle , has been in the mix in 2 out of his 3 runs recently having nearly a months break before his last dismal effort expecting an upturn in form tomorrow though.Hoping for a double figure price here.

7:55 Kempton Dvinsky down into a class five usually signal a good run it is a stalwart on the back to lay front just because he leads and battles.Another of note is Sherjawy who always gets up with pace then seems to hit a bit of a flat spot then runs on. If Dickie Le Davoir retains any sort of ability after his recent bad form off bottom weight today and with the fast pace upfront i would hope he would run a decent race.As it stands at the moment i think i will stick with the front runners for my back to lays.

Gluck

Tealing

Took the 11 out at 9 pre off , decidedly strange betting pre off on Tealing backed into 6.5 went as low as 5.5 IR.

Quick Update

1:30 Lingfield Grand Palace BSP 15 low of 8 IR

3:00 Lingfield Justcallmehandsome BSP 19.47 low of 4.90

4:00 Lingfield Goodbye Cash BSP 8 low of 7.8 no match disappointing

4:30 Lingfield Proud Linus BSP 33.29 low of  20

5:10 Kempton Cape Royal  BSP 24.75 low of 7.2

5:40 Kempton Glamorous Spirit BSP 23 low of 3

All matched up for small profit apart from Goodbye Cash probably one of the stronger selections for the day . Just the 7:10 to go with Tealing currently trading at 11 will try and sneak two points out of this.

Back on later with a glance at tomorrow.

Footie Double -  Everton & Newcastle

Tuesday, 26 January 2010

Double Up & A Peak At Tomorrow

Well the football double came in but i thought Norwich were going to blow it.

Now for a look at the All Weather tomorrow.

1:30 Lingfield Grand Palace likes to be up with the pace , has a win to his name in a class 5 , can see him being back to lay material at a decent price.

3:00 Lingfield Justcallmehandsome a strong traveller although intermitent likes to be up with the pace , has been knocking on the door since his last win, with Billy Cray back up is a viable back to lay. Small field races also help in this respect as usually tactical affairs with greater price fluctuations.

4:00 Lingfield Goodbye Cash has become a bit of a stalwart recently because of his racing style , will stick with him for now.Fine Silk also went from the front last time a price check is required here but would think it will be short.

4:30 Lingfield A strange one and a bit of a long shot but  i started off looking at Dynamo Dave after his course win on the 25th nov then switched to Bollywood Style who is 5lb better off with the aforementioned horse for 3/4 length on that run, Bollywood on that day was ridden by Ryan Powell who is aboard Proud Linus today obviously this horse has ability judged on some of his 2 yo form. I am willing to stick my neck out for a small trade.

5:10 Kempton Should or could be a frenetic pace set here by Cape Royal this may set it up for a closer but i am willing to double trade this with Fromsong who has been knocking on the door recently.Handsome Cross also comes into the reckoning here after his second last time met trouble in running.A price check on all 3 to eek out the value.

5:40 Kempton Catlin back on Glamorous Spirit who doesn't seem to know how to run a bad race for this jockey.Likes to be up with the pace which should be a good one. Run 10 days ago should have put it right for this. A forecast 20/1 Industry Odds should give me something to work with. Just on a foot note would love to see the old stager The Tatling win one,this horse would carry them all in his day.

7:10 Kempton Back down to 6f should suit The Tealing although the surface may not , Southwell being the only AW course he has ran at. Form is tied in with todays winner Wedding Dream  and although this is a class rise both look improvers.His last run at 6f he was hit in the face when challenging worth a back to lay tomorrow i feel.

Well that's all for now , Gluck tomorrow , hopefully will be on from 3 pm.

Phone Betting

Stayed at work all day today so had to have some nifty finger work on the phone. The only horse i missed out on was Smokey Rider looking at the way it ran would have been touch and go but did lead for 3f so probably with it being such a big price would probably have pinched 5 points. The rest i was matched on just trading for 3 points on each one.
     Very pleased with the race reading again with 2 winners Whatyouwoodwishfor at BFSP 14.6 and Wedding Dream at BFSP 3.95.
I may have to just start backing them, only jesting as i am sure i will make more in the long run laying off.
Going to watch the football now with a double on Forest and Norwich that will hopefully pay off. Will be back on later with a look at tomorrow.

Monday, 25 January 2010

Musings for Southwell 26/01

1:20 Southwell  I think this could be Dickie Le Davoirs day second finishing well last time at 5f, i would suggest 6 f is his best trip he has won over c&d and when he gets his conditions is a better class horse than 6.As a back to lay though he offers little value as he is a hold up horse who will come late, if at computer you can always take your higher price IR.Fuzzy Cat has the same running style and is likely to improve.In Whatyouwoodwishfor we have a horse that leads on his day , on a respectable mark and Mr. Hanagan up for the first time this year, i think i will trade for 2 points here.

2:20 Southwell With West End Lad you know what you get he will lead or be up with the pace from the start and about 1-2f out either fade or stay on his 4 th 2 runs ago over c&d was a good run and only having a run since could have put him spot on for tomorrow.He won around the same time last year and strangely enough beat Vogarth that day ( 2lb better off on that run ) Should get a workable price here.

2:50 Southwell There are a lot of horses in this race that have already done their winning this winter on the All Weather. I am going to stick my neck out here and select Smokey Rider usually up with the pace from the off and with a sole run this AW season coming in December hope he has the fitness to cope with these. Has raced as high as listed class so has the ability and uncannily most of his wins on AW have come in Jan/Feb.

4:20 Southwell I would think the Johnston horse Temple Fair will be vying for favouritsm here. On this occasion i will stick with the proven course and distance form of Wedding Dream looked an improver when winning by 6 lengths in December although obviously has its quirks.Will be up with the pace from the offset so hopefully i can get a trade out of this one.

Hopefully be back on pre racing.....

Gluck

Good Day

All in all a good day  Head First matched up and then going on to win , shame about Marjury but nothing can be done about that just glad i hadn't placed the bet and then couldn't get out.

Back on later for a look at tomorrow.

5:40 Wolverhampton

Have taken the 4.5 on Head First as he seems to have come in for sustained support throughout the day will get out at 3 hopefully.

Matched up

Monsieur Filloux matched up and hit 2.26 IR so makes up for missing out on Marjury Daw because of site downtime.

Site up and Running

Have taken 5.5 on Monsieur Filloux out at 3.5

Geez

Marjury Daw 3/4 length second think you can safely say i would have made a profit there.

Slight Hitch

Back from work and Betfair is down .

Sunday, 24 January 2010

Wolverhamptons Back to Lays for Monday

2:55 Wolverhampton In Marjury Daw we have a horse that we should get a workable price on , off for 56 days but fairly underexposed in comparison to some in this race. If running to somewhere near her 29 th Oct form should be in with a shout in this poor race. Fitness will have to be taken as a given and i think i can glean a couple of points here.

4:05 Wolverhampton With Monsieur Filloux i am sure there is plenty of improvement to come but i would think it will be too short a price to work with. Price check on this one.

5:40 Wolverhampton Head First appeals to me here as a prominent racer with course and distance form and never far off at the end , should be a viable back to lay.

Just the three for Monday then , as the form becomes more mixed with trainers looking to the new season entering the foray i should think i will find it harder to select value selections. Or they may be value but stand no chance.....

Good Luck , at work in the morning but hopefully will update before the first race.

End of Play

Job done on Titus Gent pre off did go to 17.5 IR

Overall a good day,shame i didn't get anything out of Carlito. Some great prices taken and plenty more could have been made if i wasn't so cautious but profit is profit.

May Aswell

As i am on the computer anyway  may aswell update , saves me a job tonight.

Wigrams went as low as 1.09 in running Vintage went as low as 19.

Jobs a good un ...

Highs to Lows

With Gracies a non runner was left with Carlitos and he ran no sort of race . Unmatched on that one.
Will stop doing race to race updates now as it just clogs the blog and will be unable to do it on other days anyway.

Good Luck for the rest of the afternoon...

Ha Ha Ha 3:00 Kempers

Now results like that can send a man mad..................................

Goodbye Cash down to 3.5 Toolentidhaar wins  nice profit made...

Sundays Prices Taken

3:00 Goodbye Cash 10 taken and 38 on Toolentidhaar  out at 7 and 30 .

3:35 Carlitos Spirit 20 taken out at 15

4:05 Vintage 50 taken out at 40 also had some on Wigrams Turn at 10 out at 7

4:35 Titus Gent  on at 40 out at 30

While looking for the horses at the front of the races last night i must have been playing hunt the outsider.

Gluck