Wednesday, 17 February 2010

Southwell and Kempton for Thursday

Three from Southwell and three from Kempton . Backs to lay for 2 points.

1:50 Southwell If Taper Jean Girl is ridden in her usual way i cannot see her getting a mile at Southwell. So i will take a chance here as nothing is over inspiring on Patachou obviously after a lenient handicap mark on its 3rd run when showing nothing over a mile. The second run is the one that interests me. Over 7f  no clear run when switched,kept on to be a 2 and 3/4 length 3rd. The mile should suit and the price should too.

2:20 Southwell Boss Hog is well handicapped now, won in February last year and can be given a chance in this 6 runner affair. Usually stalks just behind the leaders and i think a two point trade will be attainable here. Miss Bootylishes will probably head the market.

4:05 Southwell Guto has a 10lb pull for the length and a quarter that Wheres Reilly beat him by on the 11th of Feb.La Capriosa has 9lb for 3 1/2 length. There are many in with a chance but i will go with Guto as i think Wheres Reilly will be a contender for favourite and on the above line alone that puts Guto in with a chance. Likes to race prominent and has the c&d form. Figaro Flyer also worth a mention as can stalk or held up and looks on a decent mark and coming to himself lately. Will price check but probably stick with Guto.

6:00 Kempton Midnight Bay looks to be on a winnable mark judging on his last two runs -2 1/4 length 6th over 10f and 3 length 2nd over 9f . Will the drop to 8f do the trick ? Likes to race prominently and seems to have just been run out of it the last twice.Should get a decent price with a couple of last time out winners in the race.

7:00 Kempton Island Sunset could be anything and may well make a mockery of its handicap mark. Interesting to note it was outpaced for a while over this distance on its last run. So if i was to play her i would probably wait and back in running hoping that she duplicated that race. 230 days off course is enough to make me look elsewhere. If the handicapper has this race spot on it will be very tight and i will take a chance on Goodbye Cash . Back down or should i say just below the mark that saw her run a fine 1 and a 1/4 length 3rd to Toolentidhaar over course and distance in January, she likes to lead and very often runs her race.

8:00 Kempton 3 runs since his return the last twice knocking on the door his running styles bodes well from a back to lay perspective , on the right mark to run a big one . Highland Harvest is the selection here.

Time for some shut eye , the studying of form and then putting the thoughts on the blog are taking there toll..

Gnight, Gluck


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